Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model
International audience There is a large amount of organic carbon stored in permafrost in the northern high latitudes, which may become vulnerable to microbial decomposition under future climate warming. In order to estimate this potential carbon–climate feedback it is necessary to correctly simulate...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2015
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Online Access: | https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779/file/CRYOSPHERE-Impact%20of%20model%20developments%20on%20present%20and%20future%20simulations%20of%20permafrost%20in%20a%20global%20land-surface%20model.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015 |
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[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
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[SDE]Environmental Sciences Chadburn, S. Burke, E.J. Essery, R. Boike, J Langer, M. Heikenfeld, M Cox, PM Friedlingstein, P Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience There is a large amount of organic carbon stored in permafrost in the northern high latitudes, which may become vulnerable to microbial decomposition under future climate warming. In order to estimate this potential carbon–climate feedback it is necessary to correctly simulate the physical dynamics of permafrost within global Earth system models (ESMs) and to determine the rate at which it will thaw. Additional new processes within JULES, the land-surface scheme of the UK ESM (UKESM), include a representation of organic soils, moss and bedrock and a modification to the snow scheme; the sensitivity of permafrost to these new developments is investigated in this study. The impact of a higher vertical soil resolution and deeper soil column is also considered. Evaluation against a large group of sites shows the annual cycle of soil temperatures is approximately 25 % too large in the standard JULES version, but this error is corrected by the model improvements, in particular by deeper soil, organic soils, moss and the modified snow scheme. A comparison with active layer monitoring sites shows that the active layer is on average just over 1 m too deep in the standard model version, and this bias is reduced by 70 cm in the improved version. Increasing the soil vertical resolution allows the full range of active layer depths to be simulated; by contrast, with a poorly resolved soil at least 50 % of the permafrost area has a maximum thaw depth at the centre of the bottom soil layer. Thus all the model modifications are seen to improve the permafrost simulations. Historical permafrost area corresponds fairly well to observations in all simulations, covering an area between 14 and 19 million km 2. Simulations under two future climate scenarios show a reduced sensitivity of permafrost degradation to temperature, with the near-surface permafrost loss per degree of warming reduced from 1.5 million km 2 • C −1 in the standard version of JULES to between 1.1 and 1.2 million km 2 • C −1 in the new model ... |
author2 |
Exeter Climate Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter Grant Institute, The King’s Buildings, James Hutton Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI) Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) University of Oxford Oxford |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chadburn, S. Burke, E.J. Essery, R. Boike, J Langer, M. Heikenfeld, M Cox, PM Friedlingstein, P |
author_facet |
Chadburn, S. Burke, E.J. Essery, R. Boike, J Langer, M. Heikenfeld, M Cox, PM Friedlingstein, P |
author_sort |
Chadburn, S. |
title |
Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model |
title_short |
Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model |
title_full |
Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model |
title_fullStr |
Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model |
title_sort |
impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779/file/CRYOSPHERE-Impact%20of%20model%20developments%20on%20present%20and%20future%20simulations%20of%20permafrost%20in%20a%20global%20land-surface%20model.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015 |
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ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) |
geographic |
Jules |
geographic_facet |
Jules |
genre |
Active layer monitoring permafrost The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions |
genre_facet |
Active layer monitoring permafrost The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0432 EISSN: 1994-0440 The Cryosphere Discussions https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779 The Cryosphere Discussions, Copernicus, 2015, 9, pp.1505-1521. ⟨10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015⟩ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015 insu-01235779 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779/file/CRYOSPHERE-Impact%20of%20model%20developments%20on%20present%20and%20future%20simulations%20of%20permafrost%20in%20a%20global%20land-surface%20model.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
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9 |
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4 |
container_start_page |
1505 |
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1521 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:insu-01235779v1 2023-05-15T13:02:48+02:00 Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model Chadburn, S. Burke, E.J. Essery, R. Boike, J Langer, M. Heikenfeld, M Cox, PM Friedlingstein, P Exeter Climate Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter Grant Institute, The King’s Buildings, James Hutton Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI) Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) University of Oxford Oxford 2015-08 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779/file/CRYOSPHERE-Impact%20of%20model%20developments%20on%20present%20and%20future%20simulations%20of%20permafrost%20in%20a%20global%20land-surface%20model.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015 insu-01235779 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779/file/CRYOSPHERE-Impact%20of%20model%20developments%20on%20present%20and%20future%20simulations%20of%20permafrost%20in%20a%20global%20land-surface%20model.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0432 EISSN: 1994-0440 The Cryosphere Discussions https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01235779 The Cryosphere Discussions, Copernicus, 2015, 9, pp.1505-1521. ⟨10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2015 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015 2021-11-21T02:59:23Z International audience There is a large amount of organic carbon stored in permafrost in the northern high latitudes, which may become vulnerable to microbial decomposition under future climate warming. In order to estimate this potential carbon–climate feedback it is necessary to correctly simulate the physical dynamics of permafrost within global Earth system models (ESMs) and to determine the rate at which it will thaw. Additional new processes within JULES, the land-surface scheme of the UK ESM (UKESM), include a representation of organic soils, moss and bedrock and a modification to the snow scheme; the sensitivity of permafrost to these new developments is investigated in this study. The impact of a higher vertical soil resolution and deeper soil column is also considered. Evaluation against a large group of sites shows the annual cycle of soil temperatures is approximately 25 % too large in the standard JULES version, but this error is corrected by the model improvements, in particular by deeper soil, organic soils, moss and the modified snow scheme. A comparison with active layer monitoring sites shows that the active layer is on average just over 1 m too deep in the standard model version, and this bias is reduced by 70 cm in the improved version. Increasing the soil vertical resolution allows the full range of active layer depths to be simulated; by contrast, with a poorly resolved soil at least 50 % of the permafrost area has a maximum thaw depth at the centre of the bottom soil layer. Thus all the model modifications are seen to improve the permafrost simulations. Historical permafrost area corresponds fairly well to observations in all simulations, covering an area between 14 and 19 million km 2. Simulations under two future climate scenarios show a reduced sensitivity of permafrost degradation to temperature, with the near-surface permafrost loss per degree of warming reduced from 1.5 million km 2 • C −1 in the standard version of JULES to between 1.1 and 1.2 million km 2 • C −1 in the new model ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Active layer monitoring permafrost The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Jules ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) The Cryosphere 9 4 1505 1521 |