Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps - application to future climate and snow cover
International audience In this study, snowpack scenarios are modelled across the French Alps using dynamically downscaled variables from the ALADIN Regional Climate Model (RCM) for the control period (1961-1990) and three emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1B and A2) for the mid- and late 21st century (2...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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Online Access: | https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625/file/tc-6-785-2012.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:insu-00844625v1 2023-05-15T18:32:15+02:00 Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps - application to future climate and snow cover Rousselot, M. Durand, Y. Giraud, G. Mérindol, L. Dombrowski-Etchevers, I. Déqué, M. Castebrunet, H. Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2012-07-24 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625/file/tc-6-785-2012.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 insu-00844625 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625/file/tc-6-785-2012.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625 The Cryosphere, Copernicus 2012, 6, pp.785- 805. ⟨10.5194/tc-6-785-2012⟩ [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2012 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 2021-12-19T03:16:04Z International audience In this study, snowpack scenarios are modelled across the French Alps using dynamically downscaled variables from the ALADIN Regional Climate Model (RCM) for the control period (1961-1990) and three emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1B and A2) for the mid- and late 21st century (2021-2050 and 2071-2100). These variables are statistically adapted to the different elevations, aspects and slopes of the Alpine massifs. For this purpose, we use a simple analogue criterion with ERA40 series as well as an existing detailed climatology of the French Alps (Durand et al., 2009a) that provides complete meteorological fields from the SAFRAN analysis model. The resulting scenarios of precipitation, temperature, wind, cloudiness, longwave and shortwave radiation, and humidity are used to run the physical snow model CROCUS and simulate snowpack evolution over the massifs studied. The seasonal and regional characteristics of the simulated climate and snow cover changes are explored, as is the influence of the scenarios on these changes. Preliminary results suggest that the snow water equivalent (SWE) of the snowpack will decrease dramatically in the next century, especially in the Southern and Extreme Southern parts of the Alps. This decrease seems to result primarily from a general warming throughout the year, and possibly a deficit of precipitation in the autumn. The magnitude of the snow cover decline follows a marked altitudinal gradient, with the highest altitudes being less exposed to climate change. Scenario A2, with its high concentrations of greenhouse gases, results in a SWE reduction roughly twice as large as in the low-emission scenario B1 by the end of the century. This study needs to be completed using simulations from other RCMs, since a multi-model approach is essential for uncertainty analysis. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) The Cryosphere 6 4 785 805 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Rousselot, M. Durand, Y. Giraud, G. Mérindol, L. Dombrowski-Etchevers, I. Déqué, M. Castebrunet, H. Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps - application to future climate and snow cover |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience In this study, snowpack scenarios are modelled across the French Alps using dynamically downscaled variables from the ALADIN Regional Climate Model (RCM) for the control period (1961-1990) and three emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1B and A2) for the mid- and late 21st century (2021-2050 and 2071-2100). These variables are statistically adapted to the different elevations, aspects and slopes of the Alpine massifs. For this purpose, we use a simple analogue criterion with ERA40 series as well as an existing detailed climatology of the French Alps (Durand et al., 2009a) that provides complete meteorological fields from the SAFRAN analysis model. The resulting scenarios of precipitation, temperature, wind, cloudiness, longwave and shortwave radiation, and humidity are used to run the physical snow model CROCUS and simulate snowpack evolution over the massifs studied. The seasonal and regional characteristics of the simulated climate and snow cover changes are explored, as is the influence of the scenarios on these changes. Preliminary results suggest that the snow water equivalent (SWE) of the snowpack will decrease dramatically in the next century, especially in the Southern and Extreme Southern parts of the Alps. This decrease seems to result primarily from a general warming throughout the year, and possibly a deficit of precipitation in the autumn. The magnitude of the snow cover decline follows a marked altitudinal gradient, with the highest altitudes being less exposed to climate change. Scenario A2, with its high concentrations of greenhouse gases, results in a SWE reduction roughly twice as large as in the low-emission scenario B1 by the end of the century. This study needs to be completed using simulations from other RCMs, since a multi-model approach is essential for uncertainty analysis. |
author2 |
Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rousselot, M. Durand, Y. Giraud, G. Mérindol, L. Dombrowski-Etchevers, I. Déqué, M. Castebrunet, H. |
author_facet |
Rousselot, M. Durand, Y. Giraud, G. Mérindol, L. Dombrowski-Etchevers, I. Déqué, M. Castebrunet, H. |
author_sort |
Rousselot, M. |
title |
Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps - application to future climate and snow cover |
title_short |
Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps - application to future climate and snow cover |
title_full |
Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps - application to future climate and snow cover |
title_fullStr |
Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps - application to future climate and snow cover |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical adaptation of ALADIN RCM outputs over the French Alps - application to future climate and snow cover |
title_sort |
statistical adaptation of aladin rcm outputs over the french alps - application to future climate and snow cover |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625/file/tc-6-785-2012.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625 The Cryosphere, Copernicus 2012, 6, pp.785- 805. ⟨10.5194/tc-6-785-2012⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 insu-00844625 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00844625/file/tc-6-785-2012.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-785-2012 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
785 |
op_container_end_page |
805 |
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1766216345267994624 |