Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming
International audience Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respi...
Published in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2011
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Online Access: | https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049/file/14769.full.pdf https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1103910108 |
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carbon cycle land surface models cryosphere soil organic matter active layer [SDU.STU.GM]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geomorphology |
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carbon cycle land surface models cryosphere soil organic matter active layer [SDU.STU.GM]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geomorphology Koven C., D. Ringeval, B. Friedlingstein, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, P. Khvorostyanov, D. Krinner, G. Tarnocai, C. Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming |
topic_facet |
carbon cycle land surface models cryosphere soil organic matter active layer [SDU.STU.GM]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geomorphology |
description |
International audience Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO2 fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41-70 Tg CH4/y, with increases due to CO2 fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH4 flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Earth Science Division LBNL Berkeley (ESD) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley (LBNL) College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences Exeter (EMPS) University of Exeter ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC) CLIPS Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Agriculture and Agri-Food Ottawa (AAFC) Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231 project Impact-Boreal European Project: |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Koven C., D. Ringeval, B. Friedlingstein, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, P. Khvorostyanov, D. Krinner, G. Tarnocai, C. |
author_facet |
Koven C., D. Ringeval, B. Friedlingstein, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, P. Khvorostyanov, D. Krinner, G. Tarnocai, C. |
author_sort |
Koven C., D. |
title |
Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming |
title_short |
Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming |
title_full |
Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming |
title_fullStr |
Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming |
title_sort |
permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049/file/14769.full.pdf https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1103910108 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
ISSN: 0027-8424 EISSN: 1091-6490 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America , National Academy of Sciences, 2011, 108 (36), pp.14769-14774. ⟨10.1073/pnas.1103910108⟩ |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:insu-00647049v1 2023-05-15T17:56:39+02:00 Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming Koven C., D. Ringeval, B. Friedlingstein, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, P. Khvorostyanov, D. Krinner, G. Tarnocai, C. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Earth Science Division LBNL Berkeley (ESD) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley (LBNL) College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences Exeter (EMPS) University of Exeter ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC) CLIPS Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Agriculture and Agri-Food Ottawa (AAFC) Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231 project Impact-Boreal European Project: 2011-09-06 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049/file/14769.full.pdf https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1103910108 en eng HAL CCSD National Academy of Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1073/pnas.1103910108 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/21852573 insu-00647049 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049/file/14769.full.pdf doi:10.1073/pnas.1103910108 PRODINRA: 356800 PUBMED: 21852573 WOS: 000294543400018 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0027-8424 EISSN: 1091-6490 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00647049 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America , National Academy of Sciences, 2011, 108 (36), pp.14769-14774. ⟨10.1073/pnas.1103910108⟩ carbon cycle land surface models cryosphere soil organic matter active layer [SDU.STU.GM]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geomorphology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2011 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1103910108 2021-12-19T00:15:56Z International audience Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO2 fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41-70 Tg CH4/y, with increases due to CO2 fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH4 flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108 36 14769 14774 |