A study of the large-scale climatic effects of a possible disappearance of high-latitude inland water surfaces during the 21st century
International audience This study evaluates the climatic impact of possible future changes in high-latitude inland water surface (IWS) area. We carried out a set of climate-change experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model in which different scenarios of future changes of IWS extent w...
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HAL CCSD
2010
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Online Access: | https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00421225 |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology Krinner, Gerhard Boike, Julia A study of the large-scale climatic effects of a possible disappearance of high-latitude inland water surfaces during the 21st century |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
description |
International audience This study evaluates the climatic impact of possible future changes in high-latitude inland water surface (IWS) area. We carried out a set of climate-change experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model in which different scenarios of future changes of IWS extent were prescribed. The simulations are based on the SRES-Al B greenhouse gas emission scenario and represent the transient climatic state at the end of the 21st century. Our results indicate that the impact of a reduction in IWS extent depends on the season considered: the total disappearance of IWS would lead to cooling during cold seasons and to warming in summer. In the annual mean, the cooling effect would be dominant. In an experiment in which the future change of prescribed IWS extent is prescribed as a function of the simulated changes of permafrost extent, we find that these changes are self-consistent in the sense that their effects on the simulated temperature and precipitation patterns would not be contradictory to the underlying scenario of changes in IWS extent. In this "best guess" simulation, the projected changes in IWS extent would reduce future near-surface warming over large parts of northern Eurasia by about 20% during the cold season, while the impact in North America and during summer is less clear. As a whole, the direct climatic impact of future IWS changes is likely to be moderate. |
author2 |
CLIPS Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Department of Bentho-pelagic processes Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI)-Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI) Department of Bentho-pelagic processes Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI) Alexander-von-Humboldt-Stiftung; CNRS; LEFE (EVE) project "MISSTERRE" |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Krinner, Gerhard Boike, Julia |
author_facet |
Krinner, Gerhard Boike, Julia |
author_sort |
Krinner, Gerhard |
title |
A study of the large-scale climatic effects of a possible disappearance of high-latitude inland water surfaces during the 21st century |
title_short |
A study of the large-scale climatic effects of a possible disappearance of high-latitude inland water surfaces during the 21st century |
title_full |
A study of the large-scale climatic effects of a possible disappearance of high-latitude inland water surfaces during the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
A study of the large-scale climatic effects of a possible disappearance of high-latitude inland water surfaces during the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
A study of the large-scale climatic effects of a possible disappearance of high-latitude inland water surfaces during the 21st century |
title_sort |
study of the large-scale climatic effects of a possible disappearance of high-latitude inland water surfaces during the 21st century |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00421225 |
genre |
Boreal Environment Research permafrost |
genre_facet |
Boreal Environment Research permafrost |
op_source |
ISSN: 1239-6095 EISSN: 1797-2469 Boreal Environment Research https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00421225 Boreal Environment Research, Finnish Environment Institute, 2010, 15, pp.203-217 |
op_relation |
insu-00421225 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00421225 |
_version_ |
1766380042792730624 |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:insu-00421225v1 2023-05-15T15:45:38+02:00 A study of the large-scale climatic effects of a possible disappearance of high-latitude inland water surfaces during the 21st century Krinner, Gerhard Boike, Julia CLIPS Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Department of Bentho-pelagic processes Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI)-Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI) Department of Bentho-pelagic processes Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI) Alexander-von-Humboldt-Stiftung; CNRS; LEFE (EVE) project "MISSTERRE" 2010 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00421225 en eng HAL CCSD Finnish Environment Institute insu-00421225 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00421225 ISSN: 1239-6095 EISSN: 1797-2469 Boreal Environment Research https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00421225 Boreal Environment Research, Finnish Environment Institute, 2010, 15, pp.203-217 [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2010 ftccsdartic 2021-10-24T19:33:18Z International audience This study evaluates the climatic impact of possible future changes in high-latitude inland water surface (IWS) area. We carried out a set of climate-change experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model in which different scenarios of future changes of IWS extent were prescribed. The simulations are based on the SRES-Al B greenhouse gas emission scenario and represent the transient climatic state at the end of the 21st century. Our results indicate that the impact of a reduction in IWS extent depends on the season considered: the total disappearance of IWS would lead to cooling during cold seasons and to warming in summer. In the annual mean, the cooling effect would be dominant. In an experiment in which the future change of prescribed IWS extent is prescribed as a function of the simulated changes of permafrost extent, we find that these changes are self-consistent in the sense that their effects on the simulated temperature and precipitation patterns would not be contradictory to the underlying scenario of changes in IWS extent. In this "best guess" simulation, the projected changes in IWS extent would reduce future near-surface warming over large parts of northern Eurasia by about 20% during the cold season, while the impact in North America and during summer is less clear. As a whole, the direct climatic impact of future IWS changes is likely to be moderate. Article in Journal/Newspaper Boreal Environment Research permafrost Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |