Potential vulnerability of Namaqualand plant diversity to anthropogenic climate change
International audience We provide a position paper, using a brief literature review and some new modelling results for a subset of succulent plant species, which explores why Namaqualand plant diversity might be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change despite presumed species resilie...
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00283751 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:halsde-00283751v1 2023-05-15T16:39:24+02:00 Potential vulnerability of Namaqualand plant diversity to anthropogenic climate change Midgley, G. F. Thuiller, W. Kirstenbosch Research Center National Botanical Institute Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry ) 2007 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00283751 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020 en eng HAL CCSD Elsevier info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020 halsde-00283751 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00283751 doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020 ISSN: 0140-1963 EISSN: 1095-922X Journal of Arid Environments https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00283751 Journal of Arid Environments, Elsevier, 2007, 70 (4), pp.615-628. ⟨10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020⟩ drought tolerance limits bioclimatic modelling desert range shifts Low atmospheric co2 uv-b radiation successive generations species distributions habitat models global change south-africa ice core evolution biodiversity [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDV.BID]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2007 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020 2021-10-24T21:08:45Z International audience We provide a position paper, using a brief literature review and some new modelling results for a subset of succulent plant species, which explores why Namaqualand plant diversity might be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change despite presumed species resilience under arid conditions, and therefore a globally important test-bed for adaptive conservation strategies. The Pleistocene climate-related evolutionary history of this region in particular may predispose Namaqualand (and Succulent Karoo) plant endemics to projected climate change impacts. Key Succulent Karoo plant lineages originated during cool Pleistocene times, and projected air temperatures under anthropogenic climate change are likely to exceed these significantly. Projected rainfall patterns are less certain, and projections of the future prevalence of coastal fog are lacking, but if either of these water inputs is reduced in concert with rising temperatures, this seems certain to threaten the persistence of, at least, narrow-endemic plant species. Simple modelling approaches show strong reduction in spatial extent of bioclimates typical of Namaqualand within the next five decades and that both generalist species with large geographic ranges, and narrow-range endemics may be susceptible to climate change induced loss of potential range. Persistence of endemics in micro-habitats that are buffered from extreme climate conditions cannot be discounted, though no attempts have been made to address this shortcoming of broader scale bioclimatic modelling. The few experimental data available on elevated temperature and drought tolerance suggest susceptibility of leaf succulent species, but high drought tolerance of non-succulent shrubs. Both species-level monitoring and further experimental work is essential to test and refine projections of climate change impacts on species persistence, and the implications for conservation. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Article in Journal/Newspaper ice core Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Journal of Arid Environments 70 4 615 628 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
drought tolerance limits bioclimatic modelling desert range shifts Low atmospheric co2 uv-b radiation successive generations species distributions habitat models global change south-africa ice core evolution biodiversity [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDV.BID]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment |
spellingShingle |
drought tolerance limits bioclimatic modelling desert range shifts Low atmospheric co2 uv-b radiation successive generations species distributions habitat models global change south-africa ice core evolution biodiversity [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDV.BID]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment Midgley, G. F. Thuiller, W. Potential vulnerability of Namaqualand plant diversity to anthropogenic climate change |
topic_facet |
drought tolerance limits bioclimatic modelling desert range shifts Low atmospheric co2 uv-b radiation successive generations species distributions habitat models global change south-africa ice core evolution biodiversity [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDV.BID]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment |
description |
International audience We provide a position paper, using a brief literature review and some new modelling results for a subset of succulent plant species, which explores why Namaqualand plant diversity might be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change despite presumed species resilience under arid conditions, and therefore a globally important test-bed for adaptive conservation strategies. The Pleistocene climate-related evolutionary history of this region in particular may predispose Namaqualand (and Succulent Karoo) plant endemics to projected climate change impacts. Key Succulent Karoo plant lineages originated during cool Pleistocene times, and projected air temperatures under anthropogenic climate change are likely to exceed these significantly. Projected rainfall patterns are less certain, and projections of the future prevalence of coastal fog are lacking, but if either of these water inputs is reduced in concert with rising temperatures, this seems certain to threaten the persistence of, at least, narrow-endemic plant species. Simple modelling approaches show strong reduction in spatial extent of bioclimates typical of Namaqualand within the next five decades and that both generalist species with large geographic ranges, and narrow-range endemics may be susceptible to climate change induced loss of potential range. Persistence of endemics in micro-habitats that are buffered from extreme climate conditions cannot be discounted, though no attempts have been made to address this shortcoming of broader scale bioclimatic modelling. The few experimental data available on elevated temperature and drought tolerance suggest susceptibility of leaf succulent species, but high drought tolerance of non-succulent shrubs. Both species-level monitoring and further experimental work is essential to test and refine projections of climate change impacts on species persistence, and the implications for conservation. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
author2 |
Kirstenbosch Research Center National Botanical Institute Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry ) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Midgley, G. F. Thuiller, W. |
author_facet |
Midgley, G. F. Thuiller, W. |
author_sort |
Midgley, G. F. |
title |
Potential vulnerability of Namaqualand plant diversity to anthropogenic climate change |
title_short |
Potential vulnerability of Namaqualand plant diversity to anthropogenic climate change |
title_full |
Potential vulnerability of Namaqualand plant diversity to anthropogenic climate change |
title_fullStr |
Potential vulnerability of Namaqualand plant diversity to anthropogenic climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential vulnerability of Namaqualand plant diversity to anthropogenic climate change |
title_sort |
potential vulnerability of namaqualand plant diversity to anthropogenic climate change |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00283751 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020 |
genre |
ice core |
genre_facet |
ice core |
op_source |
ISSN: 0140-1963 EISSN: 1095-922X Journal of Arid Environments https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00283751 Journal of Arid Environments, Elsevier, 2007, 70 (4), pp.615-628. ⟨10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020 halsde-00283751 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00283751 doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020 |
container_title |
Journal of Arid Environments |
container_volume |
70 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
615 |
op_container_end_page |
628 |
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1766029736744583168 |