Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application
We produce projections of global mean sea-level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effect on sea-...
Published in: | Earth's Future |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2023
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Online Access: | https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036 https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036/document https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036/file/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Turner%20-%20Illustrative%20Multi%E2%80%90Centennial%20Projections%20of%20Global%20Mean%20Sea%E2%80%90Level%20Rise%20and%20Their.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003550 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-04344036v1 2024-01-14T10:02:01+01:00 Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application Turner, Fiona, E Malagon Santos, Victor Edwards, Tamsin, L Slangen, Aimée, B A Nicholls, Robert, J Le Cozannet, Gonéri O’neill, James Adhikari, Mira King‘s College London Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia Norwich (UEA) Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) University of Exeter 2023-12 https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036 https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036/document https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036/file/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Turner%20-%20Illustrative%20Multi%E2%80%90Centennial%20Projections%20of%20Global%20Mean%20Sea%E2%80%90Level%20Rise%20and%20Their.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003550 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2023ef003550 hal-04344036 https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036 https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036/document https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036/file/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Turner%20-%20Illustrative%20Multi%E2%80%90Centennial%20Projections%20of%20Global%20Mean%20Sea%E2%80%90Level%20Rise%20and%20Their.pdf doi:10.1029/2023ef003550 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess EISSN: 2328-4277 Earth's Future https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036 Earth's Future, 2023, 11 (12), pp.e2023EF003550. ⟨10.1029/2023ef003550⟩ [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003550 2023-12-16T23:36:32Z We produce projections of global mean sea-level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effect on sea-level rise on these long timescales, with [5, 95]% intervals of [0.3, 4.3]m and [1.0, 7.6]m under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 respectively, and a difference in the 95% quantile of 1.6 m at 2300 and 3.3 m at 2500 for the two scenarios. The largest and most uncertain component is the Antarctic ice sheet, projected to contribute 5%–95% intervals of [−0.1, 2.3]m by 2500 under SSP1-2.6 and [0.0, 3.8]m under SSP2-4.5. We discuss how the simple statistical extensions used here could be replaced with more physically based methods for more robust predictions. We show that, despite their uncertainties, current multi-centennial projections combined into multi-study projections as presented here can be used to avoid future “lock-ins” in terms of risk and adaptation needs to sea-level rise. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Antarctic The Antarctic Earth's Future 11 12 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Turner, Fiona, E Malagon Santos, Victor Edwards, Tamsin, L Slangen, Aimée, B A Nicholls, Robert, J Le Cozannet, Gonéri O’neill, James Adhikari, Mira Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
We produce projections of global mean sea-level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effect on sea-level rise on these long timescales, with [5, 95]% intervals of [0.3, 4.3]m and [1.0, 7.6]m under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 respectively, and a difference in the 95% quantile of 1.6 m at 2300 and 3.3 m at 2500 for the two scenarios. The largest and most uncertain component is the Antarctic ice sheet, projected to contribute 5%–95% intervals of [−0.1, 2.3]m by 2500 under SSP1-2.6 and [0.0, 3.8]m under SSP2-4.5. We discuss how the simple statistical extensions used here could be replaced with more physically based methods for more robust predictions. We show that, despite their uncertainties, current multi-centennial projections combined into multi-study projections as presented here can be used to avoid future “lock-ins” in terms of risk and adaptation needs to sea-level rise. |
author2 |
King‘s College London Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia Norwich (UEA) Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) University of Exeter |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Turner, Fiona, E Malagon Santos, Victor Edwards, Tamsin, L Slangen, Aimée, B A Nicholls, Robert, J Le Cozannet, Gonéri O’neill, James Adhikari, Mira |
author_facet |
Turner, Fiona, E Malagon Santos, Victor Edwards, Tamsin, L Slangen, Aimée, B A Nicholls, Robert, J Le Cozannet, Gonéri O’neill, James Adhikari, Mira |
author_sort |
Turner, Fiona, E |
title |
Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application |
title_short |
Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application |
title_full |
Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application |
title_fullStr |
Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application |
title_full_unstemmed |
Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application |
title_sort |
illustrative multi‐centennial projections of global mean sea‐level rise and their application |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036 https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036/document https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036/file/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Turner%20-%20Illustrative%20Multi%E2%80%90Centennial%20Projections%20of%20Global%20Mean%20Sea%E2%80%90Level%20Rise%20and%20Their.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003550 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
EISSN: 2328-4277 Earth's Future https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036 Earth's Future, 2023, 11 (12), pp.e2023EF003550. ⟨10.1029/2023ef003550⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2023ef003550 hal-04344036 https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036 https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036/document https://brgm.hal.science/hal-04344036/file/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Turner%20-%20Illustrative%20Multi%E2%80%90Centennial%20Projections%20of%20Global%20Mean%20Sea%E2%80%90Level%20Rise%20and%20Their.pdf doi:10.1029/2023ef003550 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003550 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
12 |
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1788056850900451328 |