Climate variation and regional gradients in population dynamics of two hole-nesting passerines

• Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences
• Main Authors: Sæther, Bernt-Erik, Engen, Steinar, Møller, Anders Pape, Matthysen, Erik, Adriaensen, Frank, Fiedler, Wolfgang, Leivits, Agu, Lambrechts, Marcel M., Visser, Marcel, Anker-Nilssen, Tycho, Both, Christiaan, Dhondt, André, Mccleery, Robin, Mcmeeking, John, Potti, Jamie, Røstad, Olewiggo, Thomson, David
• Other Authors: Department of Biology Trondheim (IBI NTNU), Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim (NTNU), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)-Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Department of Mathematical Sciences (Norwegian University of Science and Technology), Parasitologie évolutive (PE), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Antwerp (UA), Evolutionary Ecology Group, Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, Cornell University New York, Carleton University
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2003
• Subjects: [SDE]Environmental Sciences; [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology; [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]; [SDV.BA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Animal biology; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-04262128; https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2003.2499

International audience Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the deterministic components of the population dynamics and the stochastic factors. Here, we demonstrate an increase with latitude in the contribution of a large-scale climate pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to the fluctuations in size of populations of two European hole-nesting passerine species. However, this influence of climate induced different latitudinal gradients in the population dynamics of the two species. In the great tit the proportion of the variability in the population fluctuations explained by the NAO increased with latitude, showing a larger impact of climate on the population fluctuations of this species at higher latitudes. In contrast, no latitudinal gradient was found in the relative contribution of climate to the variability of the pied flycatcher populations because the total environmental stochasticity increased with latitude. This shows that the population ecological consequences of an expected climate change will depend on how climate affects the environmental stochasticity in the population process. In both species, the effects will be larger in those parts of Europe where large changes in climate are expected.