Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas
The pre-eutrophic state of marine waters is generally not well known, complicating target setting for management measures to combat eutrophication. We present results from an OSPAR ICG-EMO model assessment to simulate the pre-eutrophic state of North-East Atlantic marine waters. Using an ecosystem m...
Published in: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2023
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04204056 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-04204056v1 2024-01-14T10:09:16+01:00 Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas van Leeuwen, Sonja M. Lenhart, Hermann-J. Prins, Theo C. Blauw, Anouk Desmit, Xavier Fernand, Liam Friedland, Rene Kerimoglu, Onur Lacroix, Genevieve van der Linden, Annelotte Lefebvre, Alain van der Molen, Johan Plus, Martin Ruvalcaba Baroni, Itzel Silva, Tiago Stegert, Christoph Troost, Tineke A. Vilmin, Lauriane Laboratoire Environnement Ressources de Boulogne-sur-Mer (LERBL) Unité Littoral (LITTORAL) Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER) Laboratoire d'Ecologie Pélagique (PELAGOS) Dynamiques des Écosystèmes Côtiers (DYNECO) 2023-05 https://hal.science/hal-04204056 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 en eng HAL CCSD Frontiers Media info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 hal-04204056 https://hal.science/hal-04204056 doi:10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 ISSN: 2296-7745 Frontiers in Marine Science https://hal.science/hal-04204056 Frontiers in Marine Science, 2023, 10, 1129951 (19p.). ⟨10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951⟩ [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 2023-12-16T23:47:17Z The pre-eutrophic state of marine waters is generally not well known, complicating target setting for management measures to combat eutrophication. We present results from an OSPAR ICG-EMO model assessment to simulate the pre-eutrophic state of North-East Atlantic marine waters. Using an ecosystem model ensemble combined with an observation-based weighting method we derive sophisticated estimates for key eutrophication indicators. Eight modelling centres applied the same riverine nutrient loads, atmospheric nutrient deposition rates and boundary conditions to their specific model set-up to ensure comparability. The pre-eutrophic state was defined as a historic scenario of estimated nutrient inputs (riverine, atmospheric) at around the year 1900, before the invention and widespread use of industrial fertilizers. The period 2009-2014 was used by all participants to simulate both the current state of eutrophication and the pre-eutrophic scenario, to ensure that differences are solely due to the changes in nutrient inputs between the scenarios. Mean values were reported for winter dissolved inorganic nutrients and total nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus) and the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio, and for growing season chlorophyll, chlorophyll 90th percentile, near-bed oxygen minimum and net phytoplankton production on the level of the OSPAR assessment areas. Results showed distinctly lower nutrient concentrations and nitrogen to phosphorus ratio’s in coastal areas under pre-eutrophic conditions compared to current conditions (except in the Meuse Plume and Seine Plume areas). Chlorophyll concentrations were estimated to be as much as ~40% lower in some areas, as were dissolved inorganic phosphorus levels. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen levels were found to be up to 60% lower in certain assessment areas. The weighted average approach reduced model disparities, and delivered pre-eutrophic concentrations in each assessment area. Our results open the possibility to establish reference values for indicators of eutrophication ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North East Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Frontiers in Marine Science 10 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
spellingShingle |
[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] van Leeuwen, Sonja M. Lenhart, Hermann-J. Prins, Theo C. Blauw, Anouk Desmit, Xavier Fernand, Liam Friedland, Rene Kerimoglu, Onur Lacroix, Genevieve van der Linden, Annelotte Lefebvre, Alain van der Molen, Johan Plus, Martin Ruvalcaba Baroni, Itzel Silva, Tiago Stegert, Christoph Troost, Tineke A. Vilmin, Lauriane Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas |
topic_facet |
[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
description |
The pre-eutrophic state of marine waters is generally not well known, complicating target setting for management measures to combat eutrophication. We present results from an OSPAR ICG-EMO model assessment to simulate the pre-eutrophic state of North-East Atlantic marine waters. Using an ecosystem model ensemble combined with an observation-based weighting method we derive sophisticated estimates for key eutrophication indicators. Eight modelling centres applied the same riverine nutrient loads, atmospheric nutrient deposition rates and boundary conditions to their specific model set-up to ensure comparability. The pre-eutrophic state was defined as a historic scenario of estimated nutrient inputs (riverine, atmospheric) at around the year 1900, before the invention and widespread use of industrial fertilizers. The period 2009-2014 was used by all participants to simulate both the current state of eutrophication and the pre-eutrophic scenario, to ensure that differences are solely due to the changes in nutrient inputs between the scenarios. Mean values were reported for winter dissolved inorganic nutrients and total nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus) and the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio, and for growing season chlorophyll, chlorophyll 90th percentile, near-bed oxygen minimum and net phytoplankton production on the level of the OSPAR assessment areas. Results showed distinctly lower nutrient concentrations and nitrogen to phosphorus ratio’s in coastal areas under pre-eutrophic conditions compared to current conditions (except in the Meuse Plume and Seine Plume areas). Chlorophyll concentrations were estimated to be as much as ~40% lower in some areas, as were dissolved inorganic phosphorus levels. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen levels were found to be up to 60% lower in certain assessment areas. The weighted average approach reduced model disparities, and delivered pre-eutrophic concentrations in each assessment area. Our results open the possibility to establish reference values for indicators of eutrophication ... |
author2 |
Laboratoire Environnement Ressources de Boulogne-sur-Mer (LERBL) Unité Littoral (LITTORAL) Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER) Laboratoire d'Ecologie Pélagique (PELAGOS) Dynamiques des Écosystèmes Côtiers (DYNECO) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van Leeuwen, Sonja M. Lenhart, Hermann-J. Prins, Theo C. Blauw, Anouk Desmit, Xavier Fernand, Liam Friedland, Rene Kerimoglu, Onur Lacroix, Genevieve van der Linden, Annelotte Lefebvre, Alain van der Molen, Johan Plus, Martin Ruvalcaba Baroni, Itzel Silva, Tiago Stegert, Christoph Troost, Tineke A. Vilmin, Lauriane |
author_facet |
van Leeuwen, Sonja M. Lenhart, Hermann-J. Prins, Theo C. Blauw, Anouk Desmit, Xavier Fernand, Liam Friedland, Rene Kerimoglu, Onur Lacroix, Genevieve van der Linden, Annelotte Lefebvre, Alain van der Molen, Johan Plus, Martin Ruvalcaba Baroni, Itzel Silva, Tiago Stegert, Christoph Troost, Tineke A. Vilmin, Lauriane |
author_sort |
van Leeuwen, Sonja M. |
title |
Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas |
title_short |
Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas |
title_full |
Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas |
title_fullStr |
Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas |
title_full_unstemmed |
Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the North-West European seas |
title_sort |
deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemble model approach for the north-west european seas |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04204056 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 |
genre |
North East Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North East Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 2296-7745 Frontiers in Marine Science https://hal.science/hal-04204056 Frontiers in Marine Science, 2023, 10, 1129951 (19p.). ⟨10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 hal-04204056 https://hal.science/hal-04204056 doi:10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
10 |
_version_ |
1788063768454889472 |