Fish distribution's shifts due to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic: using a hierarchical filtering approach on marine-estuarine opportunist species|
International audience Marine-estuarine opportunist (MEO) species are fish that occur in the continental shelf and use estuaries and/or shallow coastal areas as nurseries. These commercially important resources are facing significant environmental modifications caused by direct and/or indirect anthr...
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2023
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-04177495v1 2023-09-05T13:21:52+02:00 Fish distribution's shifts due to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic: using a hierarchical filtering approach on marine-estuarine opportunist species| Janc, Anaïs Dambrine, Chloé Lambert, Patrick Lassalle, Géraldine Cabral, Henrique Lepage, Mario Lobry, Jérémy Pierre, Maud Kristiansen, Trond Butenschön, Momme Ecosystèmes aquatiques et changements globaux (UR EABX) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Bologna (CMCC) Colchester - Essex, United Kingdom 2023-07-24 https://hal.science/hal-04177495 en eng HAL CCSD hal-04177495 https://hal.science/hal-04177495 FSBI ( Fisheries Society of the British Isles ) 2023 : Fish habitat ecology in a changing climate · https://hal.science/hal-04177495 FSBI ( Fisheries Society of the British Isles ) 2023 : Fish habitat ecology in a changing climate ·, Jul 2023, Colchester - Essex, United Kingdom https://fsbi.org.uk/symposium-2023/ Marine-estuarine opportunist fish distribution shifts centroids and margins hierarchical filtering climate change Northeast Atlantic [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject Conference papers 2023 ftccsdartic 2023-08-12T22:39:14Z International audience Marine-estuarine opportunist (MEO) species are fish that occur in the continental shelf and use estuaries and/or shallow coastal areas as nurseries. These commercially important resources are facing significant environmental modifications caused by direct and/or indirect anthropogenic climate change effects. In this study, we investigated the directionality and the magnitude of the distribution shifts (i.e., range size, gravity centroids, and margins) in marine environment suitability for six main MEO fish species within the Northeast Atlantic expected for the end of the 21st century. In the framework of this study, we have distinguished ‘sub-boreal’ from ‘sub-tropical’ species. The ‘hierarchical filters’ concept was adopted for modelling the potential species distributions and combined the predictions of i) a bioclimatic model with ii) a habitat model. The bioclimatic model is based on large-scale and time-variant variables while variables of the habitat model are fine-grained and time-invariant. Two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios are tested: an intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and a pessimistic one (SSP5-8.5). We applied this framework using international databases of biodiversity occurrences, ensemble forecasting producing consensual predictions, and innovative indices of distribution shifts. A visible north-westward shift was predicted for all six species in our study area. However, the northward expansion was greater for ‘sub-tropical’ than for ‘sub-boreal’ species due to faster gravity centroid displacement shifts and faster margins shifts. These range shifts may lead to major ecological and socio-economic impacts (e.g., changes in recruitment to estuarine and coastal nurseries, as well as changes in spawning grounds) that may alter populations’ connectivity. Conference Object Northeast Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
Marine-estuarine opportunist fish distribution shifts centroids and margins hierarchical filtering climate change Northeast Atlantic [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Marine-estuarine opportunist fish distribution shifts centroids and margins hierarchical filtering climate change Northeast Atlantic [SDE]Environmental Sciences Janc, Anaïs Dambrine, Chloé Lambert, Patrick Lassalle, Géraldine Cabral, Henrique Lepage, Mario Lobry, Jérémy Pierre, Maud Kristiansen, Trond Butenschön, Momme Fish distribution's shifts due to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic: using a hierarchical filtering approach on marine-estuarine opportunist species| |
topic_facet |
Marine-estuarine opportunist fish distribution shifts centroids and margins hierarchical filtering climate change Northeast Atlantic [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Marine-estuarine opportunist (MEO) species are fish that occur in the continental shelf and use estuaries and/or shallow coastal areas as nurseries. These commercially important resources are facing significant environmental modifications caused by direct and/or indirect anthropogenic climate change effects. In this study, we investigated the directionality and the magnitude of the distribution shifts (i.e., range size, gravity centroids, and margins) in marine environment suitability for six main MEO fish species within the Northeast Atlantic expected for the end of the 21st century. In the framework of this study, we have distinguished ‘sub-boreal’ from ‘sub-tropical’ species. The ‘hierarchical filters’ concept was adopted for modelling the potential species distributions and combined the predictions of i) a bioclimatic model with ii) a habitat model. The bioclimatic model is based on large-scale and time-variant variables while variables of the habitat model are fine-grained and time-invariant. Two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios are tested: an intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and a pessimistic one (SSP5-8.5). We applied this framework using international databases of biodiversity occurrences, ensemble forecasting producing consensual predictions, and innovative indices of distribution shifts. A visible north-westward shift was predicted for all six species in our study area. However, the northward expansion was greater for ‘sub-tropical’ than for ‘sub-boreal’ species due to faster gravity centroid displacement shifts and faster margins shifts. These range shifts may lead to major ecological and socio-economic impacts (e.g., changes in recruitment to estuarine and coastal nurseries, as well as changes in spawning grounds) that may alter populations’ connectivity. |
author2 |
Ecosystèmes aquatiques et changements globaux (UR EABX) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Bologna (CMCC) |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Janc, Anaïs Dambrine, Chloé Lambert, Patrick Lassalle, Géraldine Cabral, Henrique Lepage, Mario Lobry, Jérémy Pierre, Maud Kristiansen, Trond Butenschön, Momme |
author_facet |
Janc, Anaïs Dambrine, Chloé Lambert, Patrick Lassalle, Géraldine Cabral, Henrique Lepage, Mario Lobry, Jérémy Pierre, Maud Kristiansen, Trond Butenschön, Momme |
author_sort |
Janc, Anaïs |
title |
Fish distribution's shifts due to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic: using a hierarchical filtering approach on marine-estuarine opportunist species| |
title_short |
Fish distribution's shifts due to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic: using a hierarchical filtering approach on marine-estuarine opportunist species| |
title_full |
Fish distribution's shifts due to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic: using a hierarchical filtering approach on marine-estuarine opportunist species| |
title_fullStr |
Fish distribution's shifts due to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic: using a hierarchical filtering approach on marine-estuarine opportunist species| |
title_full_unstemmed |
Fish distribution's shifts due to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic: using a hierarchical filtering approach on marine-estuarine opportunist species| |
title_sort |
fish distribution's shifts due to climate change in the northeast atlantic: using a hierarchical filtering approach on marine-estuarine opportunist species| |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04177495 |
op_coverage |
Colchester - Essex, United Kingdom |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
FSBI ( Fisheries Society of the British Isles ) 2023 : Fish habitat ecology in a changing climate · https://hal.science/hal-04177495 FSBI ( Fisheries Society of the British Isles ) 2023 : Fish habitat ecology in a changing climate ·, Jul 2023, Colchester - Essex, United Kingdom https://fsbi.org.uk/symposium-2023/ |
op_relation |
hal-04177495 https://hal.science/hal-04177495 |
_version_ |
1776202439836303360 |