Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems
International audience Regional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-04114646v1 2023-07-02T03:31:48+02:00 Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems Holt, J. Schrum, C. Cannaby, H. Daewel, U. Allen, I. Artioli, Y. Bopp, L. Butenschon, M. Fach, B. A. Harle, J. Pushpadas, D. Salihoglu, B. Wakelin, S. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2023-06-02 https://hal.science/hal-04114646 https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014 en eng HAL CCSD info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014 hal-04114646 https://hal.science/hal-04114646 BIBCODE: 2014BGD.11.1909H doi:10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014 https://hal.science/hal-04114646 2023 [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint Preprints, Working Papers, . 2023 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014 2023-06-10T23:36:53Z International audience Regional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore these physical processes and their biophysical interactions, and the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial change on them. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within regional seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts: on long term changes in elemental budgets, on seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly on direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional models systems using ECOSMO, POLCOMS-ERSEM and BIMS_ECO. These cover the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and a region of the Northeast Atlantic, using a common global ocean-atmosphere model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and a more detailed analysis of the POLCOMS-ERSEM model. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from the varying mixing and circulation conditions. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in ... Report Barents Sea Northeast Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Barents Sea |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
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[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Holt, J. Schrum, C. Cannaby, H. Daewel, U. Allen, I. Artioli, Y. Bopp, L. Butenschon, M. Fach, B. A. Harle, J. Pushpadas, D. Salihoglu, B. Wakelin, S. Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems |
topic_facet |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience Regional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore these physical processes and their biophysical interactions, and the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial change on them. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within regional seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts: on long term changes in elemental budgets, on seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly on direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional models systems using ECOSMO, POLCOMS-ERSEM and BIMS_ECO. These cover the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and a region of the Northeast Atlantic, using a common global ocean-atmosphere model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and a more detailed analysis of the POLCOMS-ERSEM model. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from the varying mixing and circulation conditions. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in ... |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Report |
author |
Holt, J. Schrum, C. Cannaby, H. Daewel, U. Allen, I. Artioli, Y. Bopp, L. Butenschon, M. Fach, B. A. Harle, J. Pushpadas, D. Salihoglu, B. Wakelin, S. |
author_facet |
Holt, J. Schrum, C. Cannaby, H. Daewel, U. Allen, I. Artioli, Y. Bopp, L. Butenschon, M. Fach, B. A. Harle, J. Pushpadas, D. Salihoglu, B. Wakelin, S. |
author_sort |
Holt, J. |
title |
Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems |
title_short |
Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems |
title_full |
Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems |
title_fullStr |
Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems |
title_sort |
physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04114646 https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014 |
geographic |
Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea |
genre |
Barents Sea Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
https://hal.science/hal-04114646 2023 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014 hal-04114646 https://hal.science/hal-04114646 BIBCODE: 2014BGD.11.1909H doi:10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014 |
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1770271203551870976 |