Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5
International audience We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcas...
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04114645 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-201410.5194/cpd-9-775-2013 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-04114645v1 2023-06-18T03:42:59+02:00 Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5 Schmidt, G. A. Annan, J. D. Bartlein, P. J. Cook, B. I. Guilyardi, E. Hargreaves, J. C. Harrison, S. P. Kageyama, M. Legrande, A. N. Konecky, B. Lovejoy, S. Mann, M. E. Masson-Delmotte, V. Risi, C. Thompson, D. Timmermann, A. Tremblay, L. -B. Yiou, P. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) 2014 https://hal.science/hal-04114645 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-201410.5194/cpd-9-775-2013 en eng HAL CCSD info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-10-221-201410.5194/cpd-9-775-2013 hal-04114645 https://hal.science/hal-04114645 BIBCODE: 2014CliPa.10.221S doi:10.5194/cp-10-221-201410.5194/cpd-9-775-2013 Climate of the Past https://hal.science/hal-04114645 Climate of the Past, 2014, 10, pp.221-250. ⟨10.5194/cp-10-221-201410.5194/cpd-9-775-2013⟩ Earth Science [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2014 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-201410.5194/cpd-9-775-2013 2023-06-03T23:49:54Z International audience We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850-1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth Science [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
spellingShingle |
Earth Science [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Schmidt, G. A. Annan, J. D. Bartlein, P. J. Cook, B. I. Guilyardi, E. Hargreaves, J. C. Harrison, S. P. Kageyama, M. Legrande, A. N. Konecky, B. Lovejoy, S. Mann, M. E. Masson-Delmotte, V. Risi, C. Thompson, D. Timmermann, A. Tremblay, L. -B. Yiou, P. Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5 |
topic_facet |
Earth Science [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850-1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schmidt, G. A. Annan, J. D. Bartlein, P. J. Cook, B. I. Guilyardi, E. Hargreaves, J. C. Harrison, S. P. Kageyama, M. Legrande, A. N. Konecky, B. Lovejoy, S. Mann, M. E. Masson-Delmotte, V. Risi, C. Thompson, D. Timmermann, A. Tremblay, L. -B. Yiou, P. |
author_facet |
Schmidt, G. A. Annan, J. D. Bartlein, P. J. Cook, B. I. Guilyardi, E. Hargreaves, J. C. Harrison, S. P. Kageyama, M. Legrande, A. N. Konecky, B. Lovejoy, S. Mann, M. E. Masson-Delmotte, V. Risi, C. Thompson, D. Timmermann, A. Tremblay, L. -B. Yiou, P. |
author_sort |
Schmidt, G. A. |
title |
Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5 |
title_short |
Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5 |
title_full |
Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5 |
title_fullStr |
Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5 |
title_sort |
using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in cmip5 |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04114645 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-201410.5194/cpd-9-775-2013 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Climate of the Past https://hal.science/hal-04114645 Climate of the Past, 2014, 10, pp.221-250. ⟨10.5194/cp-10-221-201410.5194/cpd-9-775-2013⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-10-221-201410.5194/cpd-9-775-2013 hal-04114645 https://hal.science/hal-04114645 BIBCODE: 2014CliPa.10.221S doi:10.5194/cp-10-221-201410.5194/cpd-9-775-2013 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-201410.5194/cpd-9-775-2013 |
_version_ |
1769009190718668800 |