Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate
International audience Convective storms produce heavier downpours and become more intense with climate change. Such changes could be even amplified in high-latitudes since the Arctic is warming faster than any other region in the world and subsequently moistening. However, little attention has been...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-04068429v1 2023-07-30T04:01:52+02:00 Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate Poujol, Basile Prein, Andreas Newman, Andrew Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) 2020-12 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-04068429 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 hal-04068429 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-04068429 doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-04068429 Climate Dynamics, 2020, 55 (11-12), pp.3543-3564. ⟨10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 2023-07-15T22:54:13Z International audience Convective storms produce heavier downpours and become more intense with climate change. Such changes could be even amplified in high-latitudes since the Arctic is warming faster than any other region in the world and subsequently moistening. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of global warming on intense thunderstorms in high latitude continental regions, where they can produce flash flooding or ignite wildfires. We use a model with kilometer-scale grid spacing to simulate Alaska’s climate under present and end of the century high emission scenario conditions. The current climate simulation is able to capture the frequency and intensity of hourly precipitation compared to rain gauge data. We apply a precipitation tracking algorithm to identify intense, organized convective systems, which are projected to triple in frequency and extend to the northernmost regions of Alaska under future climate conditions. Peak rainfall rates in the core of the storms will intensify by 37% in line with atmospheric moisture increases. These results could have severe impacts on Alaska’s economy and ecology since floods are already the costliest natural disaster in central Alaska and an increasing number of thunderstorms could result in more wildfires ignitions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming Alaska Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Arctic Climate Dynamics 55 11-12 3543 3564 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Poujol, Basile Prein, Andreas Newman, Andrew Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience Convective storms produce heavier downpours and become more intense with climate change. Such changes could be even amplified in high-latitudes since the Arctic is warming faster than any other region in the world and subsequently moistening. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of global warming on intense thunderstorms in high latitude continental regions, where they can produce flash flooding or ignite wildfires. We use a model with kilometer-scale grid spacing to simulate Alaska’s climate under present and end of the century high emission scenario conditions. The current climate simulation is able to capture the frequency and intensity of hourly precipitation compared to rain gauge data. We apply a precipitation tracking algorithm to identify intense, organized convective systems, which are projected to triple in frequency and extend to the northernmost regions of Alaska under future climate conditions. Peak rainfall rates in the core of the storms will intensify by 37% in line with atmospheric moisture increases. These results could have severe impacts on Alaska’s economy and ecology since floods are already the costliest natural disaster in central Alaska and an increasing number of thunderstorms could result in more wildfires ignitions. |
author2 |
Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Poujol, Basile Prein, Andreas Newman, Andrew |
author_facet |
Poujol, Basile Prein, Andreas Newman, Andrew |
author_sort |
Poujol, Basile |
title |
Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate |
title_short |
Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate |
title_full |
Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate |
title_fullStr |
Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of Alaskan convective storms in future climate |
title_sort |
kilometer-scale modeling projects a tripling of alaskan convective storms in future climate |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-04068429 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Alaska |
op_source |
ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-04068429 Climate Dynamics, 2020, 55 (11-12), pp.3543-3564. ⟨10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 hal-04068429 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-04068429 doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05466-1 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
55 |
container_issue |
11-12 |
container_start_page |
3543 |
op_container_end_page |
3564 |
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1772812612046684160 |