Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective
International audience This paper contributes to the new climate-society literature (Carleton and Hsiang, 2016) by analyzing the role of climate in conflicts over the pre-industrial period in Europe, in the vein of the recent literature initiated by Tol and Wagner (2010) and Burke and Hsiang (2014)....
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03982849v1 2023-11-12T04:22:49+01:00 Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective Damette, Olivier Goutte, Stéphane Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée (BETA) AgroParisTech-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar (Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA))-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Paris School of Business (PSB) HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM) 2022-10 https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-03982849 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2022.09.005 en eng HAL CCSD Elsevier info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jce.2022.09.005 hal-03982849 https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-03982849 doi:10.1016/j.jce.2022.09.005 ISSN: 0147-5967 EISSN: 1095-7227 Journal of Comparative Economics https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-03982849 Journal of Comparative Economics, In press, ⟨10.1016/j.jce.2022.09.005⟩ Climate change Warfare Social disturbances Agricultural productivity Global crisis Fiscal revenues Copulas JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models • Multiple Variables/C.C3.C33 - Panel Data Models • Spatio-temporal Models JEL: N - Economic History/N.N5 - Agriculture Natural Resources Environment and Extractive Industries/N.N5.N53 - Europe: Pre-1913 JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2022.09.005 2023-10-14T22:38:26Z International audience This paper contributes to the new climate-society literature (Carleton and Hsiang, 2016) by analyzing the role of climate in conflicts over the pre-industrial period in Europe, in the vein of the recent literature initiated by Tol and Wagner (2010) and Burke and Hsiang (2014). As far as we know, this study is the first to apply a (time-varying) copula analysis to climate-economics literature and to investigate the dependence between climate and conflicts in a historical time series context. Both social disturbances and wars are considered and their interrelationships are taken into account. The main contributions of the paper are: (1) the use of copula analysis compared to previous correlational approaches; (2) the analysis of the temporal heterogeneity of climatic effects via a time varying approach; (3) the introduction of agricultural and fiscal pressure channels to investigate the interrelationships between climate, social disorders and warfare; (4) the investigation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Teleconnections effects whereas previous long-term historical studies have only focused on precipitation and temperature data. Time varying Copula analysis enabled us to identify a positive dependence between temperatures and conflicts, and negative or positive dependences between anomalous precipitation and conflicts, by explicitly focusing on the joint distribution of our variables. We were also able to precisely identify the periods/regimes during which the link between climate and conflict was genuinely active and then stress on the agricultural and fiscal revenues channels. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Journal of Comparative Economics |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change Warfare Social disturbances Agricultural productivity Global crisis Fiscal revenues Copulas JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models • Multiple Variables/C.C3.C33 - Panel Data Models • Spatio-temporal Models JEL: N - Economic History/N.N5 - Agriculture Natural Resources Environment and Extractive Industries/N.N5.N53 - Europe: Pre-1913 JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance |
spellingShingle |
Climate change Warfare Social disturbances Agricultural productivity Global crisis Fiscal revenues Copulas JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models • Multiple Variables/C.C3.C33 - Panel Data Models • Spatio-temporal Models JEL: N - Economic History/N.N5 - Agriculture Natural Resources Environment and Extractive Industries/N.N5.N53 - Europe: Pre-1913 JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance Damette, Olivier Goutte, Stéphane Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective |
topic_facet |
Climate change Warfare Social disturbances Agricultural productivity Global crisis Fiscal revenues Copulas JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models • Multiple Variables/C.C3.C33 - Panel Data Models • Spatio-temporal Models JEL: N - Economic History/N.N5 - Agriculture Natural Resources Environment and Extractive Industries/N.N5.N53 - Europe: Pre-1913 JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance |
description |
International audience This paper contributes to the new climate-society literature (Carleton and Hsiang, 2016) by analyzing the role of climate in conflicts over the pre-industrial period in Europe, in the vein of the recent literature initiated by Tol and Wagner (2010) and Burke and Hsiang (2014). As far as we know, this study is the first to apply a (time-varying) copula analysis to climate-economics literature and to investigate the dependence between climate and conflicts in a historical time series context. Both social disturbances and wars are considered and their interrelationships are taken into account. The main contributions of the paper are: (1) the use of copula analysis compared to previous correlational approaches; (2) the analysis of the temporal heterogeneity of climatic effects via a time varying approach; (3) the introduction of agricultural and fiscal pressure channels to investigate the interrelationships between climate, social disorders and warfare; (4) the investigation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Teleconnections effects whereas previous long-term historical studies have only focused on precipitation and temperature data. Time varying Copula analysis enabled us to identify a positive dependence between temperatures and conflicts, and negative or positive dependences between anomalous precipitation and conflicts, by explicitly focusing on the joint distribution of our variables. We were also able to precisely identify the periods/regimes during which the link between climate and conflict was genuinely active and then stress on the agricultural and fiscal revenues channels. |
author2 |
Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée (BETA) AgroParisTech-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar (Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA))-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Paris School of Business (PSB) HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Damette, Olivier Goutte, Stéphane |
author_facet |
Damette, Olivier Goutte, Stéphane |
author_sort |
Damette, Olivier |
title |
Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective |
title_short |
Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective |
title_full |
Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective |
title_fullStr |
Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective |
title_full_unstemmed |
Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective |
title_sort |
beyond climate and conflict relationships: new evidence from a copula-based analysis on an historical perspective |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-03982849 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2022.09.005 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ISSN: 0147-5967 EISSN: 1095-7227 Journal of Comparative Economics https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-03982849 Journal of Comparative Economics, In press, ⟨10.1016/j.jce.2022.09.005⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jce.2022.09.005 hal-03982849 https://hal.univ-lorraine.fr/hal-03982849 doi:10.1016/j.jce.2022.09.005 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2022.09.005 |
container_title |
Journal of Comparative Economics |
_version_ |
1782337758659870720 |