Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues
Abstract Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on European climate. These predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea surface temper...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03971696v1 2023-05-15T17:28:32+02:00 Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues Menary, Matthew Mignot, Juliette Robson, Jon Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2021-06-16 https://hal.science/hal-03971696 https://hal.science/hal-03971696/document https://hal.science/hal-03971696/file/Menary_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_064090.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb en eng HAL CCSD IOP Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb hal-03971696 https://hal.science/hal-03971696 https://hal.science/hal-03971696/document https://hal.science/hal-03971696/file/Menary_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_064090.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-03971696 Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 16 (6), pp.064090. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb⟩ [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb 2023-02-04T23:49:33Z Abstract Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on European climate. These predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG). In order to understand the value of initialisation, and justify the high costs of such systems, predictions are routinely measured against technologically simpler benchmarks. Here, we present a new model-analogue benchmark that aims to leverage the latent information in uninitialised climate model simulations to make decadal predictions of NA SPG SSTs. This system searches through more than one hundred thousand simulated years in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archives and yields skilful predictions in its target region comparable to initialised systems. Analysis of the underlying behaviour of the system suggests the origins of this skill are physically plausible. Such a system can provide a useful benchmark for initialised systems within the NA SPG and also suggests that the limits in initialised decadal prediction skill in this region have not yet been reached. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Environmental Research Letters 16 6 064090 |
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Open Polar |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] |
spellingShingle |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] Menary, Matthew Mignot, Juliette Robson, Jon Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] |
description |
Abstract Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on European climate. These predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG). In order to understand the value of initialisation, and justify the high costs of such systems, predictions are routinely measured against technologically simpler benchmarks. Here, we present a new model-analogue benchmark that aims to leverage the latent information in uninitialised climate model simulations to make decadal predictions of NA SPG SSTs. This system searches through more than one hundred thousand simulated years in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archives and yields skilful predictions in its target region comparable to initialised systems. Analysis of the underlying behaviour of the system suggests the origins of this skill are physically plausible. Such a system can provide a useful benchmark for initialised systems within the NA SPG and also suggests that the limits in initialised decadal prediction skill in this region have not yet been reached. |
author2 |
Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Menary, Matthew Mignot, Juliette Robson, Jon |
author_facet |
Menary, Matthew Mignot, Juliette Robson, Jon |
author_sort |
Menary, Matthew |
title |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_short |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_full |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_fullStr |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_sort |
skilful decadal predictions of subpolar north atlantic ssts using cmip model-analogues |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03971696 https://hal.science/hal-03971696/document https://hal.science/hal-03971696/file/Menary_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_064090.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-03971696 Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 16 (6), pp.064090. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb hal-03971696 https://hal.science/hal-03971696 https://hal.science/hal-03971696/document https://hal.science/hal-03971696/file/Menary_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_064090.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
064090 |
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1766121271854104576 |