Ice Shelf Basal Melt Rates in the Amundsen Sea at the End of the 21st Century
International audience Antarctic Ice Sheet projections show the highest sensitivity to increased basal melting in the Amundsen Sea. However, little is known about the processes that control future increase in melt rates. We build an ensemble of three ocean–sea-ice–ice-shelf simulations for both the...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03874414 https://hal.science/hal-03874414/document https://hal.science/hal-03874414/file/jourdain_GRL_2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100629 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03874414v1 2024-02-11T09:55:18+01:00 Ice Shelf Basal Melt Rates in the Amundsen Sea at the End of the 21st Century Jourdain, Nicolas, C Mathiot, Pierre Burgard, Clara Caillet, Justine Kittel, Christoph Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) 2022 https://hal.science/hal-03874414 https://hal.science/hal-03874414/document https://hal.science/hal-03874414/file/jourdain_GRL_2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100629 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2022gl100629 hal-03874414 https://hal.science/hal-03874414 https://hal.science/hal-03874414/document https://hal.science/hal-03874414/file/jourdain_GRL_2022.pdf doi:10.1029/2022gl100629 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-03874414 Geophysical Research Letters, 2022, 49 (22), pp.e2022GL100629. ⟨10.1029/2022gl100629⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100629 2024-01-21T00:16:10Z International audience Antarctic Ice Sheet projections show the highest sensitivity to increased basal melting in the Amundsen Sea. However, little is known about the processes that control future increase in melt rates. We build an ensemble of three ocean–sea-ice–ice-shelf simulations for both the recent decades and the late 21st century, constrained by regional atmosphere simulations and the multi-model mean climate change of the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project under the RCP8.5 scenario. The ice-shelf melt rates are typically multiplied by 1.4–2.2 from present day to future, for a total basal mass loss increased by 346 Gt yr−1 on average. This is equally explained by advection of warmer water from remote locations and regional changes in Ekman downwelling and in the ice-shelf melt-induced circulation, while increased iceberg melt plays no significant role. Our simulations suggest that high-end melt projections previously used to constrain recent sea level projections may have been significantly overestimated. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Iceberg* Sea ice Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Amundsen Sea Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters 49 22 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology Jourdain, Nicolas, C Mathiot, Pierre Burgard, Clara Caillet, Justine Kittel, Christoph Ice Shelf Basal Melt Rates in the Amundsen Sea at the End of the 21st Century |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
description |
International audience Antarctic Ice Sheet projections show the highest sensitivity to increased basal melting in the Amundsen Sea. However, little is known about the processes that control future increase in melt rates. We build an ensemble of three ocean–sea-ice–ice-shelf simulations for both the recent decades and the late 21st century, constrained by regional atmosphere simulations and the multi-model mean climate change of the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project under the RCP8.5 scenario. The ice-shelf melt rates are typically multiplied by 1.4–2.2 from present day to future, for a total basal mass loss increased by 346 Gt yr−1 on average. This is equally explained by advection of warmer water from remote locations and regional changes in Ekman downwelling and in the ice-shelf melt-induced circulation, while increased iceberg melt plays no significant role. Our simulations suggest that high-end melt projections previously used to constrain recent sea level projections may have been significantly overestimated. |
author2 |
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jourdain, Nicolas, C Mathiot, Pierre Burgard, Clara Caillet, Justine Kittel, Christoph |
author_facet |
Jourdain, Nicolas, C Mathiot, Pierre Burgard, Clara Caillet, Justine Kittel, Christoph |
author_sort |
Jourdain, Nicolas, C |
title |
Ice Shelf Basal Melt Rates in the Amundsen Sea at the End of the 21st Century |
title_short |
Ice Shelf Basal Melt Rates in the Amundsen Sea at the End of the 21st Century |
title_full |
Ice Shelf Basal Melt Rates in the Amundsen Sea at the End of the 21st Century |
title_fullStr |
Ice Shelf Basal Melt Rates in the Amundsen Sea at the End of the 21st Century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ice Shelf Basal Melt Rates in the Amundsen Sea at the End of the 21st Century |
title_sort |
ice shelf basal melt rates in the amundsen sea at the end of the 21st century |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03874414 https://hal.science/hal-03874414/document https://hal.science/hal-03874414/file/jourdain_GRL_2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100629 |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Iceberg* Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Iceberg* Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-03874414 Geophysical Research Letters, 2022, 49 (22), pp.e2022GL100629. ⟨10.1029/2022gl100629⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2022gl100629 hal-03874414 https://hal.science/hal-03874414 https://hal.science/hal-03874414/document https://hal.science/hal-03874414/file/jourdain_GRL_2022.pdf doi:10.1029/2022gl100629 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100629 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
22 |
_version_ |
1790594895738568704 |