Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions.
17 pages International audience Aim In the context of intensifying threats of climate change on marine communities, ecological models are widely applied for conservation strategies, though polar studies remain scarce given the limited number of datasets available. Correlative (e.g. species distribut...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03833265v1 2023-11-05T03:37:01+01:00 Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions. Guillaumot, Charlène Belmaker, Jonathan Buba, Yehezkel Fourcy, Damien Dubois, Philippe Danis, Bruno Le Moan, Eline Saucède, Thomas Laboratoire de Biologie Marine (LBM) Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Biogéosciences UMR 6282 (BGS) Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences Israel Tel Aviv University (TAU) Dynamique et durabilité des écosystèmes : de la source à l’océan (DECOD) Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Work supported by a ‘Fonds pour la formation à la Recherche dans l'Industrie et l'Agriculture’ (FRIA) and ‘Bourse Fondation de la mer’ grants. 2022-11 https://hal.science/hal-03833265 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13617 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/ddi.13617 hal-03833265 https://hal.science/hal-03833265 doi:10.1111/ddi.13617 WOS: 000860425800001 ISSN: 1366-9516 EISSN: 1472-4642 Diversity and Distributions https://hal.science/hal-03833265 Diversity and Distributions, 2022, 28 (11), pp.2286-2302. ⟨10.1111/ddi.13617⟩ https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ddi.13617 Bayesian inference data-poor systems integrated approaches Kerguelen Islands sea urchin species distribution modelling [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13617 2023-10-07T22:53:06Z 17 pages International audience Aim In the context of intensifying threats of climate change on marine communities, ecological models are widely applied for conservation strategies, though polar studies remain scarce given the limited number of datasets available. Correlative (e.g. species distribution models, SDM) and mechanistic (e.g. dynamic energy budget models, DEB) modelling approaches are usually used independently in studies. Using both approaches in integrative, hybrid models could help to better estimate the species potential ecological niche, as mechanistic and correlative models complement each other very well, giving more insights into species potential response to fast-changing environmental conditions. Location The study focusses on the Baie du Morbihan, a silled basin located in the east of the Kerguelen Islands (sub-Antarctic). Methods A hybrid, correlative-mechanistic model was implemented to predict the response of the endemic sea urchin Abatus cordatus (Verrill, 1876). We compared the performances of classic and integrated approaches to predict A. cordatus distribution according to two dates representing seasonal contrasts. Two integrated approaches were studied and performed by either (1) including the spatial projection of the DEB model as an input layer inside the SDM ('integrated SDM-DEB') or (2) using a Bayesian procedure to use DEB model outputs as priors of the SDM ('integrated Bayesian' approach). Results Results show higher performances of 'integrated Bayesian' approaches to evaluate A. cordatus potential ecological niche compared with 'classic' and 'integrated SDM-DEB' methods. The influence of environmental conditions on model predictions is further captured with these Bayesian procedures and better highlights the environmental influence on the species-predicted distribution. Model performance is good for the different simulations, and uncertainty in predictions is well-highlighted. Main conclusions The good performances of 'integrated Bayesian' approaches to estimate species ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Diversity and Distributions 28 11 2286 2302 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
Bayesian inference data-poor systems integrated approaches Kerguelen Islands sea urchin species distribution modelling [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
spellingShingle |
Bayesian inference data-poor systems integrated approaches Kerguelen Islands sea urchin species distribution modelling [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology Guillaumot, Charlène Belmaker, Jonathan Buba, Yehezkel Fourcy, Damien Dubois, Philippe Danis, Bruno Le Moan, Eline Saucède, Thomas Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions. |
topic_facet |
Bayesian inference data-poor systems integrated approaches Kerguelen Islands sea urchin species distribution modelling [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
description |
17 pages International audience Aim In the context of intensifying threats of climate change on marine communities, ecological models are widely applied for conservation strategies, though polar studies remain scarce given the limited number of datasets available. Correlative (e.g. species distribution models, SDM) and mechanistic (e.g. dynamic energy budget models, DEB) modelling approaches are usually used independently in studies. Using both approaches in integrative, hybrid models could help to better estimate the species potential ecological niche, as mechanistic and correlative models complement each other very well, giving more insights into species potential response to fast-changing environmental conditions. Location The study focusses on the Baie du Morbihan, a silled basin located in the east of the Kerguelen Islands (sub-Antarctic). Methods A hybrid, correlative-mechanistic model was implemented to predict the response of the endemic sea urchin Abatus cordatus (Verrill, 1876). We compared the performances of classic and integrated approaches to predict A. cordatus distribution according to two dates representing seasonal contrasts. Two integrated approaches were studied and performed by either (1) including the spatial projection of the DEB model as an input layer inside the SDM ('integrated SDM-DEB') or (2) using a Bayesian procedure to use DEB model outputs as priors of the SDM ('integrated Bayesian' approach). Results Results show higher performances of 'integrated Bayesian' approaches to evaluate A. cordatus potential ecological niche compared with 'classic' and 'integrated SDM-DEB' methods. The influence of environmental conditions on model predictions is further captured with these Bayesian procedures and better highlights the environmental influence on the species-predicted distribution. Model performance is good for the different simulations, and uncertainty in predictions is well-highlighted. Main conclusions The good performances of 'integrated Bayesian' approaches to estimate species ... |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Biologie Marine (LBM) Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Biogéosciences UMR 6282 (BGS) Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences Israel Tel Aviv University (TAU) Dynamique et durabilité des écosystèmes : de la source à l’océan (DECOD) Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Work supported by a ‘Fonds pour la formation à la Recherche dans l'Industrie et l'Agriculture’ (FRIA) and ‘Bourse Fondation de la mer’ grants. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Guillaumot, Charlène Belmaker, Jonathan Buba, Yehezkel Fourcy, Damien Dubois, Philippe Danis, Bruno Le Moan, Eline Saucède, Thomas |
author_facet |
Guillaumot, Charlène Belmaker, Jonathan Buba, Yehezkel Fourcy, Damien Dubois, Philippe Danis, Bruno Le Moan, Eline Saucède, Thomas |
author_sort |
Guillaumot, Charlène |
title |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions. |
title_short |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions. |
title_full |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions. |
title_fullStr |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Classic or hybrid? The performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of Southern Ocean species to changing environmental conditions. |
title_sort |
classic or hybrid? the performance of next generation ecological models to study the response of southern ocean species to changing environmental conditions. |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03833265 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13617 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Kerguelen Islands Southern Ocean |
op_source |
ISSN: 1366-9516 EISSN: 1472-4642 Diversity and Distributions https://hal.science/hal-03833265 Diversity and Distributions, 2022, 28 (11), pp.2286-2302. ⟨10.1111/ddi.13617⟩ https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ddi.13617 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/ddi.13617 hal-03833265 https://hal.science/hal-03833265 doi:10.1111/ddi.13617 WOS: 000860425800001 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13617 |
container_title |
Diversity and Distributions |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
2286 |
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2302 |
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1781692402690424832 |