Towards improving short-term sea ice predictability using deformation observations
International audience Short-term sea ice predictability is challenging due to the lack of constraints on ice deformation features (open leads and ridges) at kilometre scale. Deformation observations capture these small-scale features and have the potential to improve the predictability. A new metho...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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2023
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03796640 https://hal.science/hal-03796640v2/document https://hal.science/hal-03796640v2/file/Korosov2023The_Cryosphere.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03796640v2 2023-12-17T10:49:45+01:00 Towards improving short-term sea ice predictability using deformation observations Korosov, Anton Rampal, Pierre Ying, Yue Ólason, Einar Williams, Timothy Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen (NERSC) Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) 2023-10-05 https://hal.science/hal-03796640 https://hal.science/hal-03796640v2/document https://hal.science/hal-03796640v2/file/Korosov2023The_Cryosphere.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023 hal-03796640 https://hal.science/hal-03796640 https://hal.science/hal-03796640v2/document https://hal.science/hal-03796640v2/file/Korosov2023The_Cryosphere.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-03796640 The Cryosphere, 2023, 17 (10), pp.4223-4240. ⟨10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023⟩ [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023 2023-11-18T23:40:57Z International audience Short-term sea ice predictability is challenging due to the lack of constraints on ice deformation features (open leads and ridges) at kilometre scale. Deformation observations capture these small-scale features and have the potential to improve the predictability. A new method for assimilation of satellite-derived sea ice deformation into the neXt generation Sea Ice Model (neXtSIM) is presented. Ice deformation provided by the Copernicus Marine Environmental Monitoring Service is computed from sea ice drift derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar at a spatio-temporal resolution of 10 km and 24 hours. We show that high values of ice deformation can be interpreted as reduced ice concentration and increased ice damage-scalar variables of neXtSIM. The proof-of-concept assimilation scheme uses a data nudging approach and deterministic forecasting with one member. Assimilation and forecasting experiments are run on example observations from January 2021 and show improvement of neXtSIM skills to predict sea ice deformation in 3-5 days horizon. It is demonstrated that neXtSIM is also capable of extrapolating the assimilated information in space-gaps in spatially discontinuous satellite observations of deformation are filled with a realistic pattern of ice cracks, confirmed by later satellite observations. The experiments also indicate that reduction in sea ice concentration plays a bigger role in improving ice deformation forecast on synoptic scales. Limitations and usefulness of the proposed assimilation approach are discussed in a context of ensemble forecasts. Pathways to estimate intrinsic predictability of sea ice deformation are proposed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice The Cryosphere Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) The Cryosphere 17 10 4223 4240 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology Korosov, Anton Rampal, Pierre Ying, Yue Ólason, Einar Williams, Timothy Towards improving short-term sea ice predictability using deformation observations |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
description |
International audience Short-term sea ice predictability is challenging due to the lack of constraints on ice deformation features (open leads and ridges) at kilometre scale. Deformation observations capture these small-scale features and have the potential to improve the predictability. A new method for assimilation of satellite-derived sea ice deformation into the neXt generation Sea Ice Model (neXtSIM) is presented. Ice deformation provided by the Copernicus Marine Environmental Monitoring Service is computed from sea ice drift derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar at a spatio-temporal resolution of 10 km and 24 hours. We show that high values of ice deformation can be interpreted as reduced ice concentration and increased ice damage-scalar variables of neXtSIM. The proof-of-concept assimilation scheme uses a data nudging approach and deterministic forecasting with one member. Assimilation and forecasting experiments are run on example observations from January 2021 and show improvement of neXtSIM skills to predict sea ice deformation in 3-5 days horizon. It is demonstrated that neXtSIM is also capable of extrapolating the assimilated information in space-gaps in spatially discontinuous satellite observations of deformation are filled with a realistic pattern of ice cracks, confirmed by later satellite observations. The experiments also indicate that reduction in sea ice concentration plays a bigger role in improving ice deformation forecast on synoptic scales. Limitations and usefulness of the proposed assimilation approach are discussed in a context of ensemble forecasts. Pathways to estimate intrinsic predictability of sea ice deformation are proposed. |
author2 |
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen (NERSC) Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Korosov, Anton Rampal, Pierre Ying, Yue Ólason, Einar Williams, Timothy |
author_facet |
Korosov, Anton Rampal, Pierre Ying, Yue Ólason, Einar Williams, Timothy |
author_sort |
Korosov, Anton |
title |
Towards improving short-term sea ice predictability using deformation observations |
title_short |
Towards improving short-term sea ice predictability using deformation observations |
title_full |
Towards improving short-term sea ice predictability using deformation observations |
title_fullStr |
Towards improving short-term sea ice predictability using deformation observations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Towards improving short-term sea ice predictability using deformation observations |
title_sort |
towards improving short-term sea ice predictability using deformation observations |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03796640 https://hal.science/hal-03796640v2/document https://hal.science/hal-03796640v2/file/Korosov2023The_Cryosphere.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023 |
genre |
Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-03796640 The Cryosphere, 2023, 17 (10), pp.4223-4240. ⟨10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023 hal-03796640 https://hal.science/hal-03796640 https://hal.science/hal-03796640v2/document https://hal.science/hal-03796640v2/file/Korosov2023The_Cryosphere.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4223-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
4223 |
op_container_end_page |
4240 |
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1785574308437819392 |