Empirical modelling of snow cover duration patterns in complex terrains of Italy
International audience Abstract Snow cover duration is a crucial climate change indicator. However, measurements of days with snow cover on the ground (DSG) are limited, especially in complex terrains, and existing measurements are fragmentary and cover only relatively short time periods. Here, we p...
Published in: | Theoretical and Applied Climatology |
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Online Access: | https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03620287 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03867-8 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03620287v1 2023-09-05T13:21:40+02:00 Empirical modelling of snow cover duration patterns in complex terrains of Italy Diodato, Nazzareno Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier Bellocchi, Gianni University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Stockholm University Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial - UMR (UREP) VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS) Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA) 2022-02 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03620287 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03867-8 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00704-021-03867-8 hal-03620287 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03620287 doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03867-8 ISSN: 0177-798X EISSN: 1434-4483 Theoretical and Applied Climatology https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03620287 Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2022, 147 (3-4), pp.1195-1212. ⟨10.1007/s00704-021-03867-8⟩ NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION CLIMATE-CHANGE MOUNTAIN REGIONS GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS VARIABILITY TRENDS WINTER ALPS TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03867-8 2023-08-12T22:58:10Z International audience Abstract Snow cover duration is a crucial climate change indicator. However, measurements of days with snow cover on the ground (DSG) are limited, especially in complex terrains, and existing measurements are fragmentary and cover only relatively short time periods. Here, we provide observational and modelling evidence that it is possible to produce reliable time-series of DSG for Italy based on instrumental measurements, and historical documentary data derived from various sources, from a limited set of stations and areas in the central-southern Apennines (CSA) of Italy. The adopted modelling approach reveals that DSG estimates in most settings in Italy can be driven by climate factors occurring in the CSA. Taking into account spatial scale-dependence, a parsimonious model was developed by incorporating elevation, winter and spring temperatures, a large-scale circulation index (the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, AMV) and a snow-severity index, with in situ DSG data, based on a core snow cover dataset covering 97 years (88% coverage in the 1907–2018 period and the rest, discontinuously from 1683 to 1895, from historical data of the Benevento station). The model was validated on the basis of the identification of contemporary snow cover patterns and historical evidence of summer snow cover in high massifs. Beyond the CSA, validation obtained across terrains of varying complexity in both the northern and southern sectors of the peninsula indicate that the model holds potential for applications in a broad range of geographical settings and climatic situations of Italy. This article advances the study of past, present and future DSG changes in the central Mediterranean region. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Theoretical and Applied Climatology 147 3-4 1195 1212 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION CLIMATE-CHANGE MOUNTAIN REGIONS GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS VARIABILITY TRENDS WINTER ALPS TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION CLIMATE-CHANGE MOUNTAIN REGIONS GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS VARIABILITY TRENDS WINTER ALPS TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Diodato, Nazzareno Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier Bellocchi, Gianni Empirical modelling of snow cover duration patterns in complex terrains of Italy |
topic_facet |
NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION CLIMATE-CHANGE MOUNTAIN REGIONS GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS VARIABILITY TRENDS WINTER ALPS TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Abstract Snow cover duration is a crucial climate change indicator. However, measurements of days with snow cover on the ground (DSG) are limited, especially in complex terrains, and existing measurements are fragmentary and cover only relatively short time periods. Here, we provide observational and modelling evidence that it is possible to produce reliable time-series of DSG for Italy based on instrumental measurements, and historical documentary data derived from various sources, from a limited set of stations and areas in the central-southern Apennines (CSA) of Italy. The adopted modelling approach reveals that DSG estimates in most settings in Italy can be driven by climate factors occurring in the CSA. Taking into account spatial scale-dependence, a parsimonious model was developed by incorporating elevation, winter and spring temperatures, a large-scale circulation index (the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, AMV) and a snow-severity index, with in situ DSG data, based on a core snow cover dataset covering 97 years (88% coverage in the 1907–2018 period and the rest, discontinuously from 1683 to 1895, from historical data of the Benevento station). The model was validated on the basis of the identification of contemporary snow cover patterns and historical evidence of summer snow cover in high massifs. Beyond the CSA, validation obtained across terrains of varying complexity in both the northern and southern sectors of the peninsula indicate that the model holds potential for applications in a broad range of geographical settings and climatic situations of Italy. This article advances the study of past, present and future DSG changes in the central Mediterranean region. |
author2 |
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Stockholm University Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial - UMR (UREP) VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS) Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Diodato, Nazzareno Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier Bellocchi, Gianni |
author_facet |
Diodato, Nazzareno Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier Bellocchi, Gianni |
author_sort |
Diodato, Nazzareno |
title |
Empirical modelling of snow cover duration patterns in complex terrains of Italy |
title_short |
Empirical modelling of snow cover duration patterns in complex terrains of Italy |
title_full |
Empirical modelling of snow cover duration patterns in complex terrains of Italy |
title_fullStr |
Empirical modelling of snow cover duration patterns in complex terrains of Italy |
title_full_unstemmed |
Empirical modelling of snow cover duration patterns in complex terrains of Italy |
title_sort |
empirical modelling of snow cover duration patterns in complex terrains of italy |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03620287 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03867-8 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ISSN: 0177-798X EISSN: 1434-4483 Theoretical and Applied Climatology https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03620287 Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2022, 147 (3-4), pp.1195-1212. ⟨10.1007/s00704-021-03867-8⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00704-021-03867-8 hal-03620287 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03620287 doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03867-8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03867-8 |
container_title |
Theoretical and Applied Climatology |
container_volume |
147 |
container_issue |
3-4 |
container_start_page |
1195 |
op_container_end_page |
1212 |
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1776202255744106496 |