Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden
International audience Abstract. Probabilistic seasonal forecasts are important for many water-intensive activities requiring long-term planning. Among the different techniques used for seasonal forecasting, the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) approach has long been employed due to the singular...
Published in: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924/file/2020_Girons_Hydrogy%20and%20Earth%20System.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021 |
id |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03483924v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03483924v1 2024-01-21T10:09:02+01:00 Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden Girons Lopez, Marc Crochemore, Louise Pechlivanidis, Ilias, G Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) RiverLy - Fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes (RiverLy) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Swedish Energy AgencyMaterials & Energy Research Center (MERC) 46412-1 European Project: 776787,S2S4E 2021 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924/file/2020_Girons_Hydrogy%20and%20Earth%20System.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//776787/EU/Forecasting climate conditions for cleaner energy production/S2S4E hal-03483924 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924/file/2020_Girons_Hydrogy%20and%20Earth%20System.pdf doi:10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021 WOS: 000626886700001 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1027-5606 EISSN: 1607-7938 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2021, 25 (3), pp.1189-1209. ⟨10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021 2023-12-23T23:47:51Z International audience Abstract. Probabilistic seasonal forecasts are important for many water-intensive activities requiring long-term planning. Among the different techniques used for seasonal forecasting, the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) approach has long been employed due to the singular dependence on past meteorological records. The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute is currently extending the use of long-range forecasts within its operational warning service, which requires a thorough analysis of the suitability and applicability of different methods with the national S-HYPE hydrological model. To this end, we aim to evaluate the skill of ESP forecasts over 39 493 catchments in Sweden, understand their spatio-temporal patterns, and explore the main hydrological processes driving forecast skill. We found that ESP forecasts are generally skilful for most of the country up to 3 months into the future but that large spatio-temporal variations exist. Forecasts are most skilful during the winter months in northern Sweden, except for the highly regulated hydropower-producing rivers. The relationships between forecast skill and 15 different hydrological signatures show that forecasts are most skilful for slow-reacting, baseflow-dominated catchments and least skilful for flashy catchments. Finally, we show that forecast skill patterns can be spatially clustered in seven unique regions with similar hydrological behaviour. Overall, these results contribute to identifying in which areas and seasons and how long into the future ESP hydrological forecasts provide an added value, not only for the national forecasting and warning service, but also, most importantly, for guiding decision-making in critical services such as hydropower management and risk reduction. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Sweden Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 25 3 1189 1209 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences Girons Lopez, Marc Crochemore, Louise Pechlivanidis, Ilias, G Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Abstract. Probabilistic seasonal forecasts are important for many water-intensive activities requiring long-term planning. Among the different techniques used for seasonal forecasting, the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) approach has long been employed due to the singular dependence on past meteorological records. The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute is currently extending the use of long-range forecasts within its operational warning service, which requires a thorough analysis of the suitability and applicability of different methods with the national S-HYPE hydrological model. To this end, we aim to evaluate the skill of ESP forecasts over 39 493 catchments in Sweden, understand their spatio-temporal patterns, and explore the main hydrological processes driving forecast skill. We found that ESP forecasts are generally skilful for most of the country up to 3 months into the future but that large spatio-temporal variations exist. Forecasts are most skilful during the winter months in northern Sweden, except for the highly regulated hydropower-producing rivers. The relationships between forecast skill and 15 different hydrological signatures show that forecasts are most skilful for slow-reacting, baseflow-dominated catchments and least skilful for flashy catchments. Finally, we show that forecast skill patterns can be spatially clustered in seven unique regions with similar hydrological behaviour. Overall, these results contribute to identifying in which areas and seasons and how long into the future ESP hydrological forecasts provide an added value, not only for the national forecasting and warning service, but also, most importantly, for guiding decision-making in critical services such as hydropower management and risk reduction. |
author2 |
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) RiverLy - Fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes (RiverLy) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Swedish Energy AgencyMaterials & Energy Research Center (MERC) 46412-1 European Project: 776787,S2S4E |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Girons Lopez, Marc Crochemore, Louise Pechlivanidis, Ilias, G |
author_facet |
Girons Lopez, Marc Crochemore, Louise Pechlivanidis, Ilias, G |
author_sort |
Girons Lopez, Marc |
title |
Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden |
title_short |
Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden |
title_full |
Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden |
title_fullStr |
Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden |
title_full_unstemmed |
Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden |
title_sort |
benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in sweden |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924/file/2020_Girons_Hydrogy%20and%20Earth%20System.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021 |
genre |
Northern Sweden |
genre_facet |
Northern Sweden |
op_source |
ISSN: 1027-5606 EISSN: 1607-7938 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2021, 25 (3), pp.1189-1209. ⟨10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//776787/EU/Forecasting climate conditions for cleaner energy production/S2S4E hal-03483924 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03483924/file/2020_Girons_Hydrogy%20and%20Earth%20System.pdf doi:10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021 WOS: 000626886700001 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021 |
container_title |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1189 |
op_container_end_page |
1209 |
_version_ |
1788699934192566272 |