Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and its impacts in Europe
The thermodynamic effects of the global-mean anthropogenic warming on the climate system are well documented. However, diagnosing dynamical changes such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging -all the more when focusing on extreme events. Here, we study 1948-2020 trends in...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03456537v1 2023-05-15T17:34:11+02:00 Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and its impacts in Europe Faranda, Davide Messori, Gabriele Jézéquel, Aglaé Vrac, Mathieu Yiou, Pascal Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) London Mathematical Laboratory Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) 2021-11-30 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537/file/Merged_Faranda_et_al_AnaloguesChanges_Nature.pdf en eng HAL CCSD hal-03456537 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537/file/Merged_Faranda_et_al_AnaloguesChanges_Nature.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537 2021 [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint Preprints, Working Papers, . 2021 ftccsdartic 2022-01-08T23:47:29Z The thermodynamic effects of the global-mean anthropogenic warming on the climate system are well documented. However, diagnosing dynamical changes such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging -all the more when focusing on extreme events. Here, we study 1948-2020 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. We identify a positive feedback of the circulation that favours extreme events in Europe under anthropogenic forcing. Only a small number of atmospheric circulation patterns display significant trends in frequency of occurrence in recent decades, yet they have major impacts on surface climate. Increasingly frequent patterns drive summertime dryness and heatwaves across Europe, and enhanced wintertime storminess in the northern half of the continent. Roughly 95% of recent heatwave-related deaths and 33% of high impact windstorms in Europe were concurrent with the atmospheric circulation patterns whose frequency of occurrence has been increasing. Atmospheric patterns which are becoming rarer correspond instead to wet, cool summer conditions across Europe and cold conditions over the northern parts of the continent. The combined effect of these circulation changes is that of a strong, dynamically-driven year-round warming over most of the continent and increased wintertime surface winds and precipitation in Northern Europe. Report North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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Open Polar |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Faranda, Davide Messori, Gabriele Jézéquel, Aglaé Vrac, Mathieu Yiou, Pascal Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and its impacts in Europe |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
The thermodynamic effects of the global-mean anthropogenic warming on the climate system are well documented. However, diagnosing dynamical changes such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging -all the more when focusing on extreme events. Here, we study 1948-2020 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. We identify a positive feedback of the circulation that favours extreme events in Europe under anthropogenic forcing. Only a small number of atmospheric circulation patterns display significant trends in frequency of occurrence in recent decades, yet they have major impacts on surface climate. Increasingly frequent patterns drive summertime dryness and heatwaves across Europe, and enhanced wintertime storminess in the northern half of the continent. Roughly 95% of recent heatwave-related deaths and 33% of high impact windstorms in Europe were concurrent with the atmospheric circulation patterns whose frequency of occurrence has been increasing. Atmospheric patterns which are becoming rarer correspond instead to wet, cool summer conditions across Europe and cold conditions over the northern parts of the continent. The combined effect of these circulation changes is that of a strong, dynamically-driven year-round warming over most of the continent and increased wintertime surface winds and precipitation in Northern Europe. |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) London Mathematical Laboratory Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) |
format |
Report |
author |
Faranda, Davide Messori, Gabriele Jézéquel, Aglaé Vrac, Mathieu Yiou, Pascal |
author_facet |
Faranda, Davide Messori, Gabriele Jézéquel, Aglaé Vrac, Mathieu Yiou, Pascal |
author_sort |
Faranda, Davide |
title |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and its impacts in Europe |
title_short |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and its impacts in Europe |
title_full |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and its impacts in Europe |
title_fullStr |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and its impacts in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and its impacts in Europe |
title_sort |
atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and its impacts in europe |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537/file/Merged_Faranda_et_al_AnaloguesChanges_Nature.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537 2021 |
op_relation |
hal-03456537 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03456537/file/Merged_Faranda_et_al_AnaloguesChanges_Nature.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1766132928060850176 |