Economic and environmental impacts of Arctic shipping: A probabilistic approach
International audience Arctic shipping is controversial due to the trade-off between its positive economic impact and its negative environmental effects. As both effects are affected by the uncertainty related to sailing conditions encountered along the route, we develop a model that estimates how i...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03422377v1 2023-05-15T14:42:10+02:00 Economic and environmental impacts of Arctic shipping: A probabilistic approach Economic and environmental impacts of Arctic shipping: A probabilistic approach: . CHEAITOU, A. FAURY, O. Cariou, Pierre Hamdan, S. Fabbri, G. Kedge Business School (Kedge BS) 2020-12 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03422377 en eng HAL CCSD hal-03422377 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03422377 EISSN: 1879-2340 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03422377 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2020 Northern Sea Route (NSR) Tankers Ice thickness Blockage probability Profit Emissions [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftccsdartic 2021-11-20T23:29:55Z International audience Arctic shipping is controversial due to the trade-off between its positive economic impact and its negative environmental effects. As both effects are affected by the uncertainty related to sailing conditions encountered along the route, we develop a model that estimates how ice conditions change the probability of blockage along the route and play on the economic and environmental attractiveness of the Northern Sea Route. The model is applied to a business case that compares the performance of two ice-class oil tankers (1A and 1AS) that use Marine Gas or Low Sulfur Fuel, and considers historical data on daily ice thickness records (2006–2016) for the probability of blockage. Our main finding is that the probability of blockage affects the choice of the optimal vessel to deploy along the Arctic Route as well as the effectiveness of various environmental policy options. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Northern Sea Route Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
Northern Sea Route (NSR) Tankers Ice thickness Blockage probability Profit Emissions [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Northern Sea Route (NSR) Tankers Ice thickness Blockage probability Profit Emissions [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences CHEAITOU, A. FAURY, O. Cariou, Pierre Hamdan, S. Fabbri, G. Economic and environmental impacts of Arctic shipping: A probabilistic approach |
topic_facet |
Northern Sea Route (NSR) Tankers Ice thickness Blockage probability Profit Emissions [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences |
description |
International audience Arctic shipping is controversial due to the trade-off between its positive economic impact and its negative environmental effects. As both effects are affected by the uncertainty related to sailing conditions encountered along the route, we develop a model that estimates how ice conditions change the probability of blockage along the route and play on the economic and environmental attractiveness of the Northern Sea Route. The model is applied to a business case that compares the performance of two ice-class oil tankers (1A and 1AS) that use Marine Gas or Low Sulfur Fuel, and considers historical data on daily ice thickness records (2006–2016) for the probability of blockage. Our main finding is that the probability of blockage affects the choice of the optimal vessel to deploy along the Arctic Route as well as the effectiveness of various environmental policy options. |
author2 |
Kedge Business School (Kedge BS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
CHEAITOU, A. FAURY, O. Cariou, Pierre Hamdan, S. Fabbri, G. |
author_facet |
CHEAITOU, A. FAURY, O. Cariou, Pierre Hamdan, S. Fabbri, G. |
author_sort |
CHEAITOU, A. |
title |
Economic and environmental impacts of Arctic shipping: A probabilistic approach |
title_short |
Economic and environmental impacts of Arctic shipping: A probabilistic approach |
title_full |
Economic and environmental impacts of Arctic shipping: A probabilistic approach |
title_fullStr |
Economic and environmental impacts of Arctic shipping: A probabilistic approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Economic and environmental impacts of Arctic shipping: A probabilistic approach |
title_sort |
economic and environmental impacts of arctic shipping: a probabilistic approach |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03422377 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Northern Sea Route |
genre_facet |
Arctic Northern Sea Route |
op_source |
EISSN: 1879-2340 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03422377 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2020 |
op_relation |
hal-03422377 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03422377 |
_version_ |
1766313877248671744 |