The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change
International audience Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03335774 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15806 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03335774v1 2023-05-15T13:56:48+02:00 The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change Jenouvrier, Stephanie Che‐Castaldo, Judy Wolf, Shaye Holland, Marika Labrousse, Sara LaRue, Michelle Wienecke, Barbara Fretwell, Peter Barbraud, Christophe Greenwald, Noah Stroeve, Julienne Trathan, Philip Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Centre for Earth Observation Science Winnipeg University of Manitoba Winnipeg 2021-10 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03335774 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15806 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/gcb.15806 hal-03335774 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03335774 doi:10.1111/gcb.15806 ISSN: 1354-1013 EISSN: 1365-2486 Global Change Biology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03335774 Global Change Biology, Wiley, 2021, 27 (20), pp.5008-5029. ⟨10.1111/gcb.15806⟩ climate risk assessments Endangered Species Act foreseeable future population projections resiliency redundancy and representation (3Rs) sea ice projections species distribution treatment of scientific uncertainty [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15806 2021-11-20T23:49:43Z International audience Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate-dependent meta-population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Aptenodytes forsteri Sea ice Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Antarctic Global Change Biology 27 20 5008 5029 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
climate risk assessments Endangered Species Act foreseeable future population projections resiliency redundancy and representation (3Rs) sea ice projections species distribution treatment of scientific uncertainty [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
climate risk assessments Endangered Species Act foreseeable future population projections resiliency redundancy and representation (3Rs) sea ice projections species distribution treatment of scientific uncertainty [SDE]Environmental Sciences Jenouvrier, Stephanie Che‐Castaldo, Judy Wolf, Shaye Holland, Marika Labrousse, Sara LaRue, Michelle Wienecke, Barbara Fretwell, Peter Barbraud, Christophe Greenwald, Noah Stroeve, Julienne Trathan, Philip The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change |
topic_facet |
climate risk assessments Endangered Species Act foreseeable future population projections resiliency redundancy and representation (3Rs) sea ice projections species distribution treatment of scientific uncertainty [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate-dependent meta-population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA. |
author2 |
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Centre for Earth Observation Science Winnipeg University of Manitoba Winnipeg |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jenouvrier, Stephanie Che‐Castaldo, Judy Wolf, Shaye Holland, Marika Labrousse, Sara LaRue, Michelle Wienecke, Barbara Fretwell, Peter Barbraud, Christophe Greenwald, Noah Stroeve, Julienne Trathan, Philip |
author_facet |
Jenouvrier, Stephanie Che‐Castaldo, Judy Wolf, Shaye Holland, Marika Labrousse, Sara LaRue, Michelle Wienecke, Barbara Fretwell, Peter Barbraud, Christophe Greenwald, Noah Stroeve, Julienne Trathan, Philip |
author_sort |
Jenouvrier, Stephanie |
title |
The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change |
title_short |
The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change |
title_full |
The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change |
title_fullStr |
The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change |
title_sort |
call of the emperor penguin: legal responses to species threatened by climate change |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03335774 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15806 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Aptenodytes forsteri Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Aptenodytes forsteri Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 1354-1013 EISSN: 1365-2486 Global Change Biology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03335774 Global Change Biology, Wiley, 2021, 27 (20), pp.5008-5029. ⟨10.1111/gcb.15806⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/gcb.15806 hal-03335774 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03335774 doi:10.1111/gcb.15806 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15806 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
20 |
container_start_page |
5008 |
op_container_end_page |
5029 |
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1766264383992758272 |