Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run
International audience Abstract. In this study, we use run-time bias correction to correct for the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) atmospheric model systematic errors on large-scale atmospheric circulation. The bias-correction terms are built using the climatological mean...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2021
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908/file/tc-15-3615-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 |
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language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Beaumet, Julien Déqué, Michel Krinner, Gerhard Agosta, Cécile Alias, Antoinette Favier, Vincent Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience Abstract. In this study, we use run-time bias correction to correct for the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) atmospheric model systematic errors on large-scale atmospheric circulation. The bias-correction terms are built using the climatological mean of the adjustment terms on tendency errors in an ARPEGE simulation relaxed towards ERA-Interim reanalyses. The bias reduction with respect to the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style uncorrected control run for the general atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is significant for mean state and daily variability. Comparisons for the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the polar-oriented regional atmospheric models MAR and RACMO2 and in situ observations also suggest substantial bias reduction for near-surface temperature and precipitation in coastal areas. Applying the method to climate projections for the late 21st century (2071–2100) leads to large differences in the projected changes of the atmospheric circulation in the southern high latitudes and of the Antarctic surface climate. The projected poleward shift and strengthening of the southern westerly winds are greatly reduced. These changes result in a significant 0.7 to 0.9 K additional warming and a 6 % to 9 % additional increase in precipitation over the grounded ice sheet. The sensitivity of precipitation increase to temperature increase (+7.7 % K−1 and +9 % K−1) found is also higher than previous estimates. The highest additional warming rates are found over East Antarctica in summer. In winter, there is a dipole of weaker warming and weaker precipitation increase over West Antarctica, contrasted by a stronger warming and a concomitant stronger precipitation increase from Victoria to Adélie Land, associated with a weaker intensification of the Amundsen Sea Low. |
author2 |
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Beaumet, Julien Déqué, Michel Krinner, Gerhard Agosta, Cécile Alias, Antoinette Favier, Vincent |
author_facet |
Beaumet, Julien Déqué, Michel Krinner, Gerhard Agosta, Cécile Alias, Antoinette Favier, Vincent |
author_sort |
Beaumet, Julien |
title |
Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run |
title_short |
Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run |
title_full |
Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run |
title_fullStr |
Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run |
title_full_unstemmed |
Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run |
title_sort |
significant additional antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected arpege projections with respect to control run |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908/file/tc-15-3615-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic East Antarctica The Antarctic West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic East Antarctica The Antarctic West Antarctica |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908 The Cryosphere, Copernicus 2021, 15 (8), pp.3615 - 3635. ⟨10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 hal-03317908 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908/file/tc-15-3615-2021.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
3615 |
op_container_end_page |
3635 |
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1766377927210958848 |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03317908v1 2023-05-15T13:24:11+02:00 Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run Beaumet, Julien Déqué, Michel Krinner, Gerhard Agosta, Cécile Alias, Antoinette Favier, Vincent Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) 2021-08-06 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908/file/tc-15-3615-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 hal-03317908 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908/file/tc-15-3615-2021.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03317908 The Cryosphere, Copernicus 2021, 15 (8), pp.3615 - 3635. ⟨10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 2022-01-09T00:15:03Z International audience Abstract. In this study, we use run-time bias correction to correct for the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) atmospheric model systematic errors on large-scale atmospheric circulation. The bias-correction terms are built using the climatological mean of the adjustment terms on tendency errors in an ARPEGE simulation relaxed towards ERA-Interim reanalyses. The bias reduction with respect to the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style uncorrected control run for the general atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is significant for mean state and daily variability. Comparisons for the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the polar-oriented regional atmospheric models MAR and RACMO2 and in situ observations also suggest substantial bias reduction for near-surface temperature and precipitation in coastal areas. Applying the method to climate projections for the late 21st century (2071–2100) leads to large differences in the projected changes of the atmospheric circulation in the southern high latitudes and of the Antarctic surface climate. The projected poleward shift and strengthening of the southern westerly winds are greatly reduced. These changes result in a significant 0.7 to 0.9 K additional warming and a 6 % to 9 % additional increase in precipitation over the grounded ice sheet. The sensitivity of precipitation increase to temperature increase (+7.7 % K−1 and +9 % K−1) found is also higher than previous estimates. The highest additional warming rates are found over East Antarctica in summer. In winter, there is a dipole of weaker warming and weaker precipitation increase over West Antarctica, contrasted by a stronger warming and a concomitant stronger precipitation increase from Victoria to Adélie Land, associated with a weaker intensification of the Amundsen Sea Low. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere West Antarctica Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Amundsen Sea Antarctic East Antarctica The Antarctic West Antarctica The Cryosphere 15 8 3615 3635 |