Using correlative and mechanistic niche models to assess the sensitivity of the Antarctic echinoid Sterechinus neumayeri to climate change.
23 pages International audience The Southern Ocean is undergoing rapid environmental changes that are likely to have a profound impact on marine life, as organisms are adapted to sub-zero temperatures and display specific adaptations to polar conditions. However, species ecological and physiological...
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03292228 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-021-02886-5 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03292228v1 2023-05-15T13:39:22+02:00 Using correlative and mechanistic niche models to assess the sensitivity of the Antarctic echinoid Sterechinus neumayeri to climate change. Fabri-Ruiz, Salomé Guillaumot, Charlène Agüera, Antonio Danis, Bruno Saucède, Thomas Biogéosciences UMR 6282 Dijon (BGS) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Bourgogne (UB)-AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement Laboratoire de Biologie Marine (LBM) Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Austevoll Research Station (IMR) Institute of Marine Research Bergen (IMR) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) Belgian Science Policy Office (BELSPO) 2021-08 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03292228 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-021-02886-5 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00300-021-02886-5 hal-03292228 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03292228 doi:10.1007/s00300-021-02886-5 ISSN: 0722-4060 EISSN: 1432-2056 Polar Biology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03292228 Polar Biology, Springer Verlag, 2021, 44 (8), pp.1517-1539. ⟨10.1007/s00300-021-02886-5⟩ https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00300-021-02886-5 Ecological niche model Dynamic energy budget Species distribution model [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-021-02886-5 2021-10-23T23:11:21Z 23 pages International audience The Southern Ocean is undergoing rapid environmental changes that are likely to have a profound impact on marine life, as organisms are adapted to sub-zero temperatures and display specific adaptations to polar conditions. However, species ecological and physiological responses to environmental changes remain poorly understood at large spatial scale owing to sparse observation data. In this context, correlative ecological niche modeling (ENMc) can prove useful. This approach is based on the correlation between species occurrences and environmental parameters to predict the potential species occupied space. However, this approach suffers from a series of limitations amongst which extrapolation and poor transferability performances in space and time. Mechanistic ecological niche modeling (ENMm) is a process-based approach that describes species functional traits in a dynamic environmental context and can therefore represent a complementary tool to understand processes that shape species distribution in a changing environment. In this study, we used both ENMc and ENMm projections to model the distribution of the Antarctic echinoid Sterechinus neumayeri. Both models were projected according to present (2005–2012) and future IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for (2050–2099). ENMc and ENMm projections are congruent and predict suitable current conditions for the species on the Antarctic shelf, in the Ross Sea and Prydz Bay areas. Unsuitable conditions are predicted in the northern Kerguelen Plateau and South Campbell Plateau due to observed lower food availability and higher sea water temperatures compared to other areas. In contrast, the two models diverge under future RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. According to ENMm projections, the species would not be able to grow nor reach sexual maturity over the entire ocean, whereas the Antarctic shelf is still projected as suitable by the ENMc. This study highlights the complementarity and relevance of EMN approaches to model large scale ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Polar Biology Prydz Bay Ross Sea Southern Ocean Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Antarctic Campbell Plateau ENVELOPE(171.000,171.000,-50.667,-50.667) Kerguelen Prydz Bay Ross Sea Southern Ocean The Antarctic Polar Biology 44 8 1517 1539 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecological niche model Dynamic energy budget Species distribution model [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
Ecological niche model Dynamic energy budget Species distribution model [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Fabri-Ruiz, Salomé Guillaumot, Charlène Agüera, Antonio Danis, Bruno Saucède, Thomas Using correlative and mechanistic niche models to assess the sensitivity of the Antarctic echinoid Sterechinus neumayeri to climate change. |
topic_facet |
Ecological niche model Dynamic energy budget Species distribution model [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
23 pages International audience The Southern Ocean is undergoing rapid environmental changes that are likely to have a profound impact on marine life, as organisms are adapted to sub-zero temperatures and display specific adaptations to polar conditions. However, species ecological and physiological responses to environmental changes remain poorly understood at large spatial scale owing to sparse observation data. In this context, correlative ecological niche modeling (ENMc) can prove useful. This approach is based on the correlation between species occurrences and environmental parameters to predict the potential species occupied space. However, this approach suffers from a series of limitations amongst which extrapolation and poor transferability performances in space and time. Mechanistic ecological niche modeling (ENMm) is a process-based approach that describes species functional traits in a dynamic environmental context and can therefore represent a complementary tool to understand processes that shape species distribution in a changing environment. In this study, we used both ENMc and ENMm projections to model the distribution of the Antarctic echinoid Sterechinus neumayeri. Both models were projected according to present (2005–2012) and future IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for (2050–2099). ENMc and ENMm projections are congruent and predict suitable current conditions for the species on the Antarctic shelf, in the Ross Sea and Prydz Bay areas. Unsuitable conditions are predicted in the northern Kerguelen Plateau and South Campbell Plateau due to observed lower food availability and higher sea water temperatures compared to other areas. In contrast, the two models diverge under future RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. According to ENMm projections, the species would not be able to grow nor reach sexual maturity over the entire ocean, whereas the Antarctic shelf is still projected as suitable by the ENMc. This study highlights the complementarity and relevance of EMN approaches to model large scale ... |
author2 |
Biogéosciences UMR 6282 Dijon (BGS) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Bourgogne (UB)-AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement Laboratoire de Biologie Marine (LBM) Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Austevoll Research Station (IMR) Institute of Marine Research Bergen (IMR) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) Belgian Science Policy Office (BELSPO) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fabri-Ruiz, Salomé Guillaumot, Charlène Agüera, Antonio Danis, Bruno Saucède, Thomas |
author_facet |
Fabri-Ruiz, Salomé Guillaumot, Charlène Agüera, Antonio Danis, Bruno Saucède, Thomas |
author_sort |
Fabri-Ruiz, Salomé |
title |
Using correlative and mechanistic niche models to assess the sensitivity of the Antarctic echinoid Sterechinus neumayeri to climate change. |
title_short |
Using correlative and mechanistic niche models to assess the sensitivity of the Antarctic echinoid Sterechinus neumayeri to climate change. |
title_full |
Using correlative and mechanistic niche models to assess the sensitivity of the Antarctic echinoid Sterechinus neumayeri to climate change. |
title_fullStr |
Using correlative and mechanistic niche models to assess the sensitivity of the Antarctic echinoid Sterechinus neumayeri to climate change. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using correlative and mechanistic niche models to assess the sensitivity of the Antarctic echinoid Sterechinus neumayeri to climate change. |
title_sort |
using correlative and mechanistic niche models to assess the sensitivity of the antarctic echinoid sterechinus neumayeri to climate change. |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03292228 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-021-02886-5 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(171.000,171.000,-50.667,-50.667) |
geographic |
Antarctic Campbell Plateau Kerguelen Prydz Bay Ross Sea Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Campbell Plateau Kerguelen Prydz Bay Ross Sea Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Polar Biology Prydz Bay Ross Sea Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Polar Biology Prydz Bay Ross Sea Southern Ocean |
op_source |
ISSN: 0722-4060 EISSN: 1432-2056 Polar Biology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03292228 Polar Biology, Springer Verlag, 2021, 44 (8), pp.1517-1539. ⟨10.1007/s00300-021-02886-5⟩ https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00300-021-02886-5 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00300-021-02886-5 hal-03292228 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03292228 doi:10.1007/s00300-021-02886-5 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-021-02886-5 |
container_title |
Polar Biology |
container_volume |
44 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
1517 |
op_container_end_page |
1539 |
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1766117720740331520 |