Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa
International audience Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur,...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03273897v1 2023-05-15T16:27:39+02:00 Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa Chemison, Alizée Ramstein, Gilles Tompkins, Adrian, Defrance, Dimitri Camus, Guigone Charra, Margaux Caminade, Cyril Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Modélisation du climat (CLIM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste (ICTP) University of Liverpool 2021 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897/file/s41467-021-24134-4.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 en eng HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 hal-03273897 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897/file/s41467-021-24134-4.pdf doi:10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2041-1723 EISSN: 2041-1723 Nature Communications https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897 Nature Communications, Nature Publishing Group, 2021, 12, pp.3971. ⟨10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4⟩ [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Bioclimatology [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 2022-01-09T00:18:44Z International audience Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Greenland Laplace ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) Nature Communications 12 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Bioclimatology [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases |
spellingShingle |
[SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Bioclimatology [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases Chemison, Alizée Ramstein, Gilles Tompkins, Adrian, Defrance, Dimitri Camus, Guigone Charra, Margaux Caminade, Cyril Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa |
topic_facet |
[SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Bioclimatology [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases |
description |
International audience Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Modélisation du climat (CLIM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste (ICTP) University of Liverpool |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chemison, Alizée Ramstein, Gilles Tompkins, Adrian, Defrance, Dimitri Camus, Guigone Charra, Margaux Caminade, Cyril |
author_facet |
Chemison, Alizée Ramstein, Gilles Tompkins, Adrian, Defrance, Dimitri Camus, Guigone Charra, Margaux Caminade, Cyril |
author_sort |
Chemison, Alizée |
title |
Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa |
title_short |
Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa |
title_full |
Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa |
title_fullStr |
Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa |
title_sort |
impact of an accelerated melting of greenland on malaria distribution over africa |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897/file/s41467-021-24134-4.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) |
geographic |
Greenland Laplace |
geographic_facet |
Greenland Laplace |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
ISSN: 2041-1723 EISSN: 2041-1723 Nature Communications https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897 Nature Communications, Nature Publishing Group, 2021, 12, pp.3971. ⟨10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 hal-03273897 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03273897/file/s41467-021-24134-4.pdf doi:10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766017100661391360 |