Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues
International audience Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on European climate. These predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2021
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009/file/Menary_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_064090.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03273009v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
AMOC decadal prediction analogue CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology |
spellingShingle |
AMOC decadal prediction analogue CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology Menary, Matthew, Mignot, Juliette Robson, Jon Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
topic_facet |
AMOC decadal prediction analogue CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology |
description |
International audience Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on European climate. These predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG). In order to understand the value of initialisation, and justify the high costs of such systems, predictions are routinely measured against technologically simpler benchmarks. Here, we present a new model-analogue benchmark that aims to leverage the latent information in uninitialised climate model simulations to make decadal predictions of NA SPG SSTs. This system searches through more than one hundred thousand simulated years in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archives and yields skilful predictions in its target region comparable to initialised systems. Analysis of the underlying behaviour of the system suggests the origins of this skill are physically plausible. Such a system can provide a useful benchmark for initialised systems within the NA SPG and also suggests that the limits in initialised decadal prediction skill in this region have not yet been reached. |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU) NCAS-Climate Reading Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR) ANR-20-ERC9-0001,HARMONY,HARMONY : Exploiter la puissance des nouveaux modèles climatiques pour la société(2020) European Project: 789445,https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/789445/reporting,EPICE(2018) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Menary, Matthew, Mignot, Juliette Robson, Jon |
author_facet |
Menary, Matthew, Mignot, Juliette Robson, Jon |
author_sort |
Menary, Matthew, |
title |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_short |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_full |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_fullStr |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_sort |
skilful decadal predictions of subpolar north atlantic ssts using cmip model-analogues |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009/file/Menary_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_064090.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009 Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, 2021, 16 (6), pp.064090. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/https//789445/EU/Emergent Properties to Improve Climate projections over Europe/EPICE info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//776613/EU/European Climate Prediction system/EUCP hal-03273009 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009/file/Menary_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_064090.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb IRD: fdi:010082134 WOS: 000662040900001 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
064090 |
_version_ |
1766302036938194944 |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03273009v1 2023-05-15T14:27:56+02:00 Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues Menary, Matthew, Mignot, Juliette Robson, Jon Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU) NCAS-Climate Reading Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR) ANR-20-ERC9-0001,HARMONY,HARMONY : Exploiter la puissance des nouveaux modèles climatiques pour la société(2020) European Project: 789445,https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/789445/reporting,EPICE(2018) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017) 2021-06-15 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009/file/Menary_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_064090.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb en eng HAL CCSD IOP Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/https//789445/EU/Emergent Properties to Improve Climate projections over Europe/EPICE info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//776613/EU/European Climate Prediction system/EUCP hal-03273009 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009/file/Menary_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_064090.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb IRD: fdi:010082134 WOS: 000662040900001 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03273009 Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, 2021, 16 (6), pp.064090. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb⟩ AMOC decadal prediction analogue CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb 2022-01-09T00:18:47Z International audience Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on European climate. These predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG). In order to understand the value of initialisation, and justify the high costs of such systems, predictions are routinely measured against technologically simpler benchmarks. Here, we present a new model-analogue benchmark that aims to leverage the latent information in uninitialised climate model simulations to make decadal predictions of NA SPG SSTs. This system searches through more than one hundred thousand simulated years in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archives and yields skilful predictions in its target region comparable to initialised systems. Analysis of the underlying behaviour of the system suggests the origins of this skill are physically plausible. Such a system can provide a useful benchmark for initialised systems within the NA SPG and also suggests that the limits in initialised decadal prediction skill in this region have not yet been reached. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Environmental Research Letters 16 6 064090 |