Fingerprint of climate change in precipitation aggressiveness across the central Mediterranean (Italian) area

• Published in: Scientific Reports
• Main Authors: Diodato, Nazzareno, Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier, Bellocchi, Gianni
• Other Authors: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Stockholm University, Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial - UMR (UREP), VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: north-atlantic oscillation; monthly rainfall erosivity; extreme precipitation; homogeneity test; patterns; variability; trends; reconstruction; future; flood; [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03121072; https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03121072/document; https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03121072/file/Diodato_N_2020_Scientific_reports.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-78857-3

International audience Rainfall erosivity and its derivative, erosivity density (ED, i.e., the erosivity per unit of rain), is a main driver of considerable environmental damages and economic losses worldwide. This study is the first to investigate the interannual variability, and return periods, of both rainfall erosivity and ED over the Mediterranean for the period 1680-2019. By capturing the relationship between seasonal rainfall, its variability, and recorded hydrological extremes in documentary data consistent with a sample (1981-2015) of detailed Revised Universal Soil Loss Erosion-based data, we show a noticeable decreasing trend of rainfall erosivity since about 1838. However, the 30-year return period of ED values indicates a positive long-term trend, in tandem with the resurgence of very wet days (>95th percentile) and the erosive activity of rains during the past two decades. A possible fingerprint of recent warming is the occurrence of prolonged wet spells in apparently more erratic and unexpected ways.