Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
International audience This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropr...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/file/mudryk_2020_TC_snow_CMIP6.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03051782v1 2023-05-15T16:37:53+02:00 Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble Mudryk, Lawrence Santolaria-Otín, María Krinner, Gerhard Ménégoz, Martin Derksen, Chris Brutel-Vuilmet, Claire Brady, Mike Essery, Richard Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) 2020-07-31 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/file/mudryk_2020_TC_snow_CMIP6.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 hal-03051782 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/file/mudryk_2020_TC_snow_CMIP6.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782 The Cryosphere, Copernicus 2020, 14 (7), pp.2495 - 2514. ⟨10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 2021-11-07T00:30:05Z International audience This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropriate, the CMIP6 output is compared to CMIP5 results in order to assess progress (or absence thereof) between successive model generations. An ensemble of six observation-based products is used to produce a new time series of historical Northern Hemisphere snow extent anomalies and trends; a subset of four of these products is used for snow mass. Trends in snow extent over 1981–2018 are negative in all months and exceed −50×103 km2 yr−1 during November, December, March, and May. Snow mass trends are approximately −5 Gt yr−1 or more for all months from December to May. Overall, the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble better represents the snow extent climatology over the 1981–2014 period for all months, correcting a low bias in CMIP5. Simulated snow extent and snow mass trends over the 1981–2014 period are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, although large inter-model spread remains in the simulated trends for both variables. There is a single linear relationship between projected spring snow extent and global surface air temperature (GSAT) changes, which is valid across all CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. This finding suggests that Northern Hemisphere spring snow extent will decrease by about 8 % relative to the 1995–2014 level per degree Celsius of GSAT increase. The sensitivity of snow to temperature forcing largely explains the absence of any climate change pathway dependency, similar to other fast-response components of the cryosphere such as sea ice and near-surface permafrost extent. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice permafrost Sea ice The Cryosphere Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) The Cryosphere 14 7 2495 2514 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences Mudryk, Lawrence Santolaria-Otín, María Krinner, Gerhard Ménégoz, Martin Derksen, Chris Brutel-Vuilmet, Claire Brady, Mike Essery, Richard Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropriate, the CMIP6 output is compared to CMIP5 results in order to assess progress (or absence thereof) between successive model generations. An ensemble of six observation-based products is used to produce a new time series of historical Northern Hemisphere snow extent anomalies and trends; a subset of four of these products is used for snow mass. Trends in snow extent over 1981–2018 are negative in all months and exceed −50×103 km2 yr−1 during November, December, March, and May. Snow mass trends are approximately −5 Gt yr−1 or more for all months from December to May. Overall, the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble better represents the snow extent climatology over the 1981–2014 period for all months, correcting a low bias in CMIP5. Simulated snow extent and snow mass trends over the 1981–2014 period are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, although large inter-model spread remains in the simulated trends for both variables. There is a single linear relationship between projected spring snow extent and global surface air temperature (GSAT) changes, which is valid across all CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. This finding suggests that Northern Hemisphere spring snow extent will decrease by about 8 % relative to the 1995–2014 level per degree Celsius of GSAT increase. The sensitivity of snow to temperature forcing largely explains the absence of any climate change pathway dependency, similar to other fast-response components of the cryosphere such as sea ice and near-surface permafrost extent. |
author2 |
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mudryk, Lawrence Santolaria-Otín, María Krinner, Gerhard Ménégoz, Martin Derksen, Chris Brutel-Vuilmet, Claire Brady, Mike Essery, Richard |
author_facet |
Mudryk, Lawrence Santolaria-Otín, María Krinner, Gerhard Ménégoz, Martin Derksen, Chris Brutel-Vuilmet, Claire Brady, Mike Essery, Richard |
author_sort |
Mudryk, Lawrence |
title |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_short |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_full |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_sort |
historical northern hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the cmip6 multi-model ensemble |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/file/mudryk_2020_TC_snow_CMIP6.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 |
genre |
Ice permafrost Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Ice permafrost Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782 The Cryosphere, Copernicus 2020, 14 (7), pp.2495 - 2514. ⟨10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 hal-03051782 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03051782/file/mudryk_2020_TC_snow_CMIP6.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2495 |
op_container_end_page |
2514 |
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1766028190933843968 |