From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate
International audience A comprehensive analysis of the representation of winter and summer Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in global climate simulations in both present and future climate is presented. Three generations of climate models are considered: CMIP3 (2007), CMIP5 (2012), and CMIP6...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-03032567v1 2023-05-15T16:29:45+02:00 From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate Davini, Paolo D'Andrea, Fabio Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e Del Clima Torino (isac) Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) 2020 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567/file/jclid190862.pdf en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society hal-03032567 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567/file/jclid190862.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567 Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 2020 Blocking Jets Climate change Climate sensitivity Climate models Climate variability [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftccsdartic 2021-12-05T00:51:33Z International audience A comprehensive analysis of the representation of winter and summer Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in global climate simulations in both present and future climate is presented. Three generations of climate models are considered: CMIP3 (2007), CMIP5 (2012), and CMIP6 (2019). All models show common and extended underestimation of blocking frequencies, but a reduction of the negative biases in successive model generations is observed. However, in some specific regions and seasons such as the winter European sector, even CMIP6 models are not yet able to achieve the observed blocking frequency. For future decades the vast majority of models simulate a decrease of blocking frequency in both winter and summer, with the exception of summer blocking over the Urals and winter blocking over western North America. Winter predicted decreases may be even larger than currently estimated considering that models with larger blocking frequencies, and hence generally smaller errors, show larger reduction. Nonetheless, trends computed over the historical period are weak and often contrast with observations: this is particularly worrisome for summer Greenland blocking where models and observations significantly disagree. Finally, the intensity of global warming is related to blocking changes: wintertime European and North Pacific blocking are expected to decrease following larger global mean temperatures, while Ural summer blocking is expected to increase. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Greenland Pacific |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
Blocking Jets Climate change Climate sensitivity Climate models Climate variability [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
Blocking Jets Climate change Climate sensitivity Climate models Climate variability [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Davini, Paolo D'Andrea, Fabio From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate |
topic_facet |
Blocking Jets Climate change Climate sensitivity Climate models Climate variability [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience A comprehensive analysis of the representation of winter and summer Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in global climate simulations in both present and future climate is presented. Three generations of climate models are considered: CMIP3 (2007), CMIP5 (2012), and CMIP6 (2019). All models show common and extended underestimation of blocking frequencies, but a reduction of the negative biases in successive model generations is observed. However, in some specific regions and seasons such as the winter European sector, even CMIP6 models are not yet able to achieve the observed blocking frequency. For future decades the vast majority of models simulate a decrease of blocking frequency in both winter and summer, with the exception of summer blocking over the Urals and winter blocking over western North America. Winter predicted decreases may be even larger than currently estimated considering that models with larger blocking frequencies, and hence generally smaller errors, show larger reduction. Nonetheless, trends computed over the historical period are weak and often contrast with observations: this is particularly worrisome for summer Greenland blocking where models and observations significantly disagree. Finally, the intensity of global warming is related to blocking changes: wintertime European and North Pacific blocking are expected to decrease following larger global mean temperatures, while Ural summer blocking is expected to increase. |
author2 |
Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e Del Clima Torino (isac) Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Davini, Paolo D'Andrea, Fabio |
author_facet |
Davini, Paolo D'Andrea, Fabio |
author_sort |
Davini, Paolo |
title |
From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate |
title_short |
From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate |
title_full |
From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate |
title_fullStr |
From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate |
title_sort |
from cmip3 to cmip6: northern hemisphere atmospheric blocking simulation in present and future climate |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567/file/jclid190862.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Greenland Pacific |
genre |
Greenland |
genre_facet |
Greenland |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567 Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 2020 |
op_relation |
hal-03032567 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03032567/file/jclid190862.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1766019465570418688 |