A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

• Published in: Environmental Research Letters
• Main Authors: Warszawski, Lila, Friend, Andrew, Ostberg, Sebastian, Frieler, Katja, Lucht, Wolfgang, SCHAPHOFF, SIBYLL, Beerling, David, Cadule, Patricia, Ciais, Philippe, Clark, Douglas, Kahana, Ron, Ito, Akihiko, Keribin, Rozenn, Kleidon, Axel, Lomas, Mark, Nishina, Kazuya, Pavlick, Ryan, Rademacher, Tim Tito, Buechner, Matthias, Piontek, Franziska, Schewe, Jacob, Serdeczny, Olivia, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
• Other Authors: Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), University of Cambridge UK (CAM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield Sheffield, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Animal and Plant Sciences Sheffield, Department of Geography Cambridge, UK, Santa Fe Institute
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2013
• Subjects: climate change; ecosystem change; global vegetation; [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology; environment/Bioclimatology; [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology; environment/Ecosystems; Canada; Tundra
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02930052; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02930052/document; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02930052/file/Warszawski_2013_Environ._Res._Lett._8_044018.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018

International audience Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth's ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest.