Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation
International audience Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate t...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737/file/Boe%CC%81_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_084038.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-02908737v1 2023-05-15T17:34:57+02:00 Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation Boe, Julien Terray, Laurent Moine, Marie-Pierre Valcke, Sophie Bellucci, Alessio Drijfhout, Sybren Haarsma, Reindert Julius Lohmann, Katja Putrasahan, Dian Roberts, Christopher Roberts, Malcolm Scoccimarro, Enrico Seddon, Jon Senan, Retish Wyser, Klaus CERFACS Toulouse Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Bologna (CMCC) Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) 2020 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737/file/Boe%CC%81_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_084038.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 en eng HAL CCSD IOP Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 hal-02908737 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737/file/Boe%CC%81_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_084038.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737 Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, 2020, 15 (8), pp.084038. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89⟩ climate change Europe summer warming atmospheric circulation trends model evaluation [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 2021-11-07T00:38:30Z International audience Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate this issue with a new generation of climate models and systematically explore the role of large-scale circulation in that context. As an ensemble, climate models in this study warm less over western Europe and warm more over eastern Europe than observed on the 1951-2014 period, but it is difficult to conclude this is directly due to systematic errors given the large potential impact of internal variability. These differences in temperature trends are explained to an important extent by an anti-correlation of sea level pressure trends over the North Atlantic / Europe domain between models and observations. The observed trend tends to warm (cool) western (eastern) Europe but the simulated trends generally have the opposite effect, both in new generation and past generation climate models. The differences between observed and simulated sea level pressure trends are likely the result of systematic model errors, which might also impact future climate projections. Neither a higher resolution nor the realistic representation of the evolution of sea surface temperature and sea ice leads to a better simulation of sea level pressure trends. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Sea ice Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Environmental Research Letters 15 8 084038 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change Europe summer warming atmospheric circulation trends model evaluation [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
climate change Europe summer warming atmospheric circulation trends model evaluation [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Boe, Julien Terray, Laurent Moine, Marie-Pierre Valcke, Sophie Bellucci, Alessio Drijfhout, Sybren Haarsma, Reindert Julius Lohmann, Katja Putrasahan, Dian Roberts, Christopher Roberts, Malcolm Scoccimarro, Enrico Seddon, Jon Senan, Retish Wyser, Klaus Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
topic_facet |
climate change Europe summer warming atmospheric circulation trends model evaluation [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
description |
International audience Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate this issue with a new generation of climate models and systematically explore the role of large-scale circulation in that context. As an ensemble, climate models in this study warm less over western Europe and warm more over eastern Europe than observed on the 1951-2014 period, but it is difficult to conclude this is directly due to systematic errors given the large potential impact of internal variability. These differences in temperature trends are explained to an important extent by an anti-correlation of sea level pressure trends over the North Atlantic / Europe domain between models and observations. The observed trend tends to warm (cool) western (eastern) Europe but the simulated trends generally have the opposite effect, both in new generation and past generation climate models. The differences between observed and simulated sea level pressure trends are likely the result of systematic model errors, which might also impact future climate projections. Neither a higher resolution nor the realistic representation of the evolution of sea surface temperature and sea ice leads to a better simulation of sea level pressure trends. |
author2 |
CERFACS Toulouse Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Bologna (CMCC) Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Boe, Julien Terray, Laurent Moine, Marie-Pierre Valcke, Sophie Bellucci, Alessio Drijfhout, Sybren Haarsma, Reindert Julius Lohmann, Katja Putrasahan, Dian Roberts, Christopher Roberts, Malcolm Scoccimarro, Enrico Seddon, Jon Senan, Retish Wyser, Klaus |
author_facet |
Boe, Julien Terray, Laurent Moine, Marie-Pierre Valcke, Sophie Bellucci, Alessio Drijfhout, Sybren Haarsma, Reindert Julius Lohmann, Katja Putrasahan, Dian Roberts, Christopher Roberts, Malcolm Scoccimarro, Enrico Seddon, Jon Senan, Retish Wyser, Klaus |
author_sort |
Boe, Julien |
title |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_short |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_full |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_fullStr |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_sort |
past long-term summer warming over western europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737/file/Boe%CC%81_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_084038.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 |
genre |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737 Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, 2020, 15 (8), pp.084038. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 hal-02908737 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02908737/file/Boe%CC%81_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_084038.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
084038 |
_version_ |
1766133958567788544 |