Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density change for 1993–2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs
International audience Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-02892529v1 2023-05-15T18:25:45+02:00 Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density change for 1993–2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs Bilbao, Roberto Gregory, Jonathan, Bouttes, Nathaëlle University of Reading (UOR) NCAS-Climate Reading Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR) 2015-11 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02892529 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z hal-02892529 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02892529 doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02892529 Climate Dynamics, Springer Verlag, 2015, 45 (9-10), pp.2647-2666. ⟨10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2015 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z 2021-07-24T22:45:50Z International audience Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Pacific Southern Ocean Climate Dynamics 45 9-10 2647 2666 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Bilbao, Roberto Gregory, Jonathan, Bouttes, Nathaëlle Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density change for 1993–2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic. |
author2 |
University of Reading (UOR) NCAS-Climate Reading Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bilbao, Roberto Gregory, Jonathan, Bouttes, Nathaëlle |
author_facet |
Bilbao, Roberto Gregory, Jonathan, Bouttes, Nathaëlle |
author_sort |
Bilbao, Roberto |
title |
Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density change for 1993–2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs |
title_short |
Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density change for 1993–2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs |
title_full |
Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density change for 1993–2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs |
title_fullStr |
Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density change for 1993–2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density change for 1993–2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs |
title_sort |
analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density change for 1993–2099 in observations and cmip5 aogcms |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02892529 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z |
geographic |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02892529 Climate Dynamics, Springer Verlag, 2015, 45 (9-10), pp.2647-2666. ⟨10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z hal-02892529 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02892529 doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
45 |
container_issue |
9-10 |
container_start_page |
2647 |
op_container_end_page |
2666 |
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1766207399653277696 |