Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans
International audience Recent avian flu epidemics (A/H5N1) in Southeast Asia and case reports from around the world have led to fears of a human pandemic. Control of these outbreaks in birds would probably lead to reduced transmission of the avian virus to humans. This study presents a mathematical...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-02663642v1 2023-05-15T15:34:24+02:00 Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans Le Menach, Arnaud Vergu, Elisabeta Grais, Rebecca F. Smith, David L. Flahault, Antoine Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC) Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) Unité de biométrie et intelligence artificielle de jouy Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) National Institutes of Health 2006 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02663642 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 en eng HAL CCSD Royal Society, The info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 hal-02663642 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02663642 doi:10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 PRODINRA: 18424 WOS: 000240729900009 ISSN: 0962-8452 EISSN: 1471-2954 Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02663642 Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Royal Society, The, 2006, 273 (1600), pp.2467-2475. ⟨10.1098/rspb.2006.3609⟩ AVIAN INFLUENZA CONTROL MATHEMATICAL MODEL NETHERLANDS H5N1 POULTRY HOLDING EPIDEMIOLOGY [MATH]Mathematics [math] [INFO]Computer Science [cs] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2006 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 2021-09-11T23:38:26Z International audience Recent avian flu epidemics (A/H5N1) in Southeast Asia and case reports from around the world have led to fears of a human pandemic. Control of these outbreaks in birds would probably lead to reduced transmission of the avian virus to humans. This study presents a mathematical model based on stochastic farm-to-farm transmission that incorporates flock size and spatial contacts to evaluate the impact of control strategies. Fit to data from the recent epidemic in the Netherlands, we evaluate the efficacy of control strategies and forecast avian influenza dynamics. Our results identify high-risk areas of spread by mapping of the farm level reproductive number. Results suggest that an immediate depopulation of infected flocks following an accurate and quick diagnosis would have a greater impact than simply depopulating surrounding flocks. Understanding the relative importance of different control measures is essential for response planning Article in Journal/Newspaper Avian flu Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 273 1600 2467 2475 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
AVIAN INFLUENZA CONTROL MATHEMATICAL MODEL NETHERLANDS H5N1 POULTRY HOLDING EPIDEMIOLOGY [MATH]Mathematics [math] [INFO]Computer Science [cs] |
spellingShingle |
AVIAN INFLUENZA CONTROL MATHEMATICAL MODEL NETHERLANDS H5N1 POULTRY HOLDING EPIDEMIOLOGY [MATH]Mathematics [math] [INFO]Computer Science [cs] Le Menach, Arnaud Vergu, Elisabeta Grais, Rebecca F. Smith, David L. Flahault, Antoine Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
topic_facet |
AVIAN INFLUENZA CONTROL MATHEMATICAL MODEL NETHERLANDS H5N1 POULTRY HOLDING EPIDEMIOLOGY [MATH]Mathematics [math] [INFO]Computer Science [cs] |
description |
International audience Recent avian flu epidemics (A/H5N1) in Southeast Asia and case reports from around the world have led to fears of a human pandemic. Control of these outbreaks in birds would probably lead to reduced transmission of the avian virus to humans. This study presents a mathematical model based on stochastic farm-to-farm transmission that incorporates flock size and spatial contacts to evaluate the impact of control strategies. Fit to data from the recent epidemic in the Netherlands, we evaluate the efficacy of control strategies and forecast avian influenza dynamics. Our results identify high-risk areas of spread by mapping of the farm level reproductive number. Results suggest that an immediate depopulation of infected flocks following an accurate and quick diagnosis would have a greater impact than simply depopulating surrounding flocks. Understanding the relative importance of different control measures is essential for response planning |
author2 |
Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC) Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) Unité de biométrie et intelligence artificielle de jouy Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) National Institutes of Health |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Le Menach, Arnaud Vergu, Elisabeta Grais, Rebecca F. Smith, David L. Flahault, Antoine |
author_facet |
Le Menach, Arnaud Vergu, Elisabeta Grais, Rebecca F. Smith, David L. Flahault, Antoine |
author_sort |
Le Menach, Arnaud |
title |
Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
title_short |
Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
title_full |
Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
title_fullStr |
Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
title_full_unstemmed |
Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
title_sort |
key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02663642 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 |
genre |
Avian flu |
genre_facet |
Avian flu |
op_source |
ISSN: 0962-8452 EISSN: 1471-2954 Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02663642 Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Royal Society, The, 2006, 273 (1600), pp.2467-2475. ⟨10.1098/rspb.2006.3609⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 hal-02663642 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02663642 doi:10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 PRODINRA: 18424 WOS: 000240729900009 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
container_volume |
273 |
container_issue |
1600 |
container_start_page |
2467 |
op_container_end_page |
2475 |
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1766364809127788544 |