Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

• Published in: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
• Main Authors: McGuire, A.D., Koven, C., Lawrence, D.M., Clein, J.S., Xia, J., BEER, C., Burke, E., Chen, G., Chen, X., Delire, C., Jafarov, E., MacDougall, A., Marchenko, S., Nicolsky, D., Peng, Shuang, Rinke, A., Saito, K., Zhang, W., Alkama, R., Bohn, T.J., Ciais, Philippe, Decharme, B., Hayes, D.J., Ekici, A., Gouttevin, I., Hajima, T., Ji, D., Krinner, G., Lettenmaier, D.P., Luo, Y., Miller, P.A., Moore, J.C., Romanovsky, V., Schaedel, C., Schaefer, K., Schuur, E.A.G., Smith, Barry, Sueyoshi, T., Zhuang, Q
• Other Authors: Geophysical Institute Fairbanks, University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY CALIFORNIA USA, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH BOULDER COLORADO USA, INSTITUTE OF ARCTIC BIOLOGY UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS USA, EAST CHINA NORMAL UNIVERSITY SHANGHAI CHN, ACES STOCKHOLM SWE, BOLIN CENTRE FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY SWE, MET OFFICE HADLEY CENTRE EXETER GBR, OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY TENNESSEE USA, UNIVERSITY OF WAHINGTON SEATTLE USA, Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), INSTITUTE OF ARCTIC ALPINE RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO BOULDER USA, SCHOOL OF EARTH AND OCEAN SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA BRITISH COLUMBIA CAN, Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG ), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 )-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ALFRED WEGENER INSTITUTE HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR POLAR AND MARINE RESEARCH POTSDAM DEU, COLLEGE OF GLOBAL CHANGE AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY CHN CHN, JAPAN AGENCY FOR MARINE EARTH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY YOKOHAMA JPN, DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY AND ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE LUND UNIVERSITY SWE, SCHOOL OF EARTH AND SPACE EXPLORATION ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY TEMPE USA, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Hydrologie-Hydraulique (UR HHLY), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES USA, DEPARTMENT OF MICROBIOLOGY AND PLANT BIOLOGY UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA NORMAN USA, NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITY FLAGSTAFF USA, NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO BOULDER USA, PURDUE UNIVERSITY WEST LAFAYETTE INDIANA USA
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2016
• Subjects: PERMAFROST; PERMAFROST MODELLING; LAND-SURFACE MODELS; GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTION; CO2-ENHANCEMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; MODEL SENSITIVITY; CARBON DYNAMICS; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; permafrost
• Online Access: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430; https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430/document; https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02605430/file/McGuire_GlobalBiogeochemicaCycles2016.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405

International audience A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr−1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr−1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to ...