Irreducible Uncertainties and Persistence in Sea Level Variations
International audience Predictions of sea level changes over the forthcoming decades contain irreducible uncertainties due to internal climate variability. These uncertainties are commonly estimated from spread of sea level predictions obtained in Global Climate Models (GCM) under the same forcing b...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-02544776v1 2023-05-15T17:33:37+02:00 Irreducible Uncertainties and Persistence in Sea Level Variations Karpytchev, Mikhail Becker, Melanie hu, aixue deser, clara LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés - UMRi 7266 (LIENSs) Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Washington, United States 2018-12 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02544776 en eng HAL CCSD hal-02544776 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02544776 American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02544776 American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting, Dec 2018, Washington, United States [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject Conference papers 2018 ftccsdartic 2021-11-07T01:12:34Z International audience Predictions of sea level changes over the forthcoming decades contain irreducible uncertainties due to internal climate variability. These uncertainties are commonly estimated from spread of sea level predictions obtained in Global Climate Models (GCM) under the same forcing but with slightly different initial conditions. In this study, we focus on an internal climate variability metric based on the analysis of temporal behavior of sea level time series. We analyze sea level variations simulated by Community Climate System Model version 4 (NCAR-CCSM4) and Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM 1). We demonstrate the persistence of sea level variations over decadal - interdecadal scales in the extratropical and polar regions and highlight its importance for the long-term predictions. Comparison of the sea level persistence simulated by the models with a set of century-long tidal records shows a general agreement with some exceptions due, probably, to a yet limited spatial resolution of the GCMs. The impact of the persistence (often known as long-term memory) is converted to irreducable incertainties in the sea level changes. These intrinsic uncertainties in the future sea level changes are shown to be strongly enhanced in some regions (e.g. North Atlantic, North Pacific, Polar regions) and should be taken into account in sea level predictions. Conference Object North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Pacific |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
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[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Karpytchev, Mikhail Becker, Melanie hu, aixue deser, clara Irreducible Uncertainties and Persistence in Sea Level Variations |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Predictions of sea level changes over the forthcoming decades contain irreducible uncertainties due to internal climate variability. These uncertainties are commonly estimated from spread of sea level predictions obtained in Global Climate Models (GCM) under the same forcing but with slightly different initial conditions. In this study, we focus on an internal climate variability metric based on the analysis of temporal behavior of sea level time series. We analyze sea level variations simulated by Community Climate System Model version 4 (NCAR-CCSM4) and Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM 1). We demonstrate the persistence of sea level variations over decadal - interdecadal scales in the extratropical and polar regions and highlight its importance for the long-term predictions. Comparison of the sea level persistence simulated by the models with a set of century-long tidal records shows a general agreement with some exceptions due, probably, to a yet limited spatial resolution of the GCMs. The impact of the persistence (often known as long-term memory) is converted to irreducable incertainties in the sea level changes. These intrinsic uncertainties in the future sea level changes are shown to be strongly enhanced in some regions (e.g. North Atlantic, North Pacific, Polar regions) and should be taken into account in sea level predictions. |
author2 |
LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés - UMRi 7266 (LIENSs) Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Karpytchev, Mikhail Becker, Melanie hu, aixue deser, clara |
author_facet |
Karpytchev, Mikhail Becker, Melanie hu, aixue deser, clara |
author_sort |
Karpytchev, Mikhail |
title |
Irreducible Uncertainties and Persistence in Sea Level Variations |
title_short |
Irreducible Uncertainties and Persistence in Sea Level Variations |
title_full |
Irreducible Uncertainties and Persistence in Sea Level Variations |
title_fullStr |
Irreducible Uncertainties and Persistence in Sea Level Variations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Irreducible Uncertainties and Persistence in Sea Level Variations |
title_sort |
irreducible uncertainties and persistence in sea level variations |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02544776 |
op_coverage |
Washington, United States |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02544776 American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting, Dec 2018, Washington, United States |
op_relation |
hal-02544776 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02544776 |
_version_ |
1766132189660971008 |