Benthic ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change.

• Published in: Global Change Biology
• Main Authors: Fabri-Ruiz, Salomé, Danis, Bruno, Navarro, Nicolas, Koubbi, Philippe, Laffont, Rémi, Saucède, Thomas
• Other Authors: Biogéosciences UMR 6282 Dijon (BGS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Bourgogne (UB)-AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement, Laboratoire de Biologie Marine, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), UFR 918 Terre - environnement - Biodiversité, Structure et fonctionnement des systèmes hydriques continentaux (SISYPHE), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire Ressources halieutiques Manche Mer du nord, IFREMER Centre Manche Mer du Nord, (HMMN), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), French Polar Institute, Grant/AwardNumber: 36 and 9; Belgian Science PolicyOffice
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: climate change; echinoids; ecological niche modeling; ecoregionalization; Marine Protected Areas; [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology; [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; Antarctic; Southern Ocean; The Antarctic; Antarctic Peninsula; East Antarctica; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02521931; https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14988

20 pages International audience The Southern Ocean (SO) is among the regions on Earth that are undergoing regionally the fastest environmental changes. The unique ecological features of its marine life make it particularly vulnerable to the multiple effects of climate change. A network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has started to be implemented in the SO to protect marine ecosystems. However, considering future predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the relevance of current, static, MPAs may be questioned under future scenarios. In this context, the ecoregionalization approach can prove promising in identifying well‐delimited regions of common species composition and environmental settings. These so‐called ecoregions are expected to show similar biotic responses to environmental changes and can be used to define priority areas for the designation of new MPAs and the update of their current delimitation. In the present work, a benthic ecoregionalization of the entire SO is proposed for the first time based on abiotic environmental parameters and the distribution of echinoid fauna, a diversified and common member of Antarctic benthic ecosystems. A novel two‐step approach was developed combining species distribution modeling with Random Forest and Gaussian Mixture modeling from species probabilities to define current ecoregions and predict future ecoregions under IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The ecological representativity of current and proposed MPAs of the SO is discussed with regard to the modeled benthic ecoregions. In all, 12 benthic ecoregions were determined under present conditions, they are representative of major biogeographic patterns already described. Our results show that the most dramatic changes can be expected along the Antarctic Peninsula, in East Antarctica and the sub‐Antarctic islands under both IPCC scenarios. Our results advocate for a dynamic definition of MPAs, they also argue for improving the representativity of Antarctic ecoregions in proposed MPAs ...