Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1
International audience Climate forcing, sensitivity, and feedback metrics are evaluated in both the United Kingdom's physical climate model HadGEM3‐GC3.1 at low (‐LL) and medium (‐MM) resolution and the United Kingdom's Earth System Model UKESM1. The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) t...
Published in: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2019
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816/file/Andrews_et_al-2019-Journal_of_Advances_in_Modeling_Earth_Systems.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001866 |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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language |
English |
topic |
Climate Sensitivity CMIP6 CFMIP RFMIP Radiative forcing Climate feedback [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
Climate Sensitivity CMIP6 CFMIP RFMIP Radiative forcing Climate feedback [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Andrews, Timothy Andrews, Martin B. Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro Jones, Gareth, Kuhlbrodt, Till Manners, James Menary, Matthew, Ridley, Jeff Ringer, Mark, Sellar, Alistair, Senior, Catherine A. Tang, Yongming Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1 |
topic_facet |
Climate Sensitivity CMIP6 CFMIP RFMIP Radiative forcing Climate feedback [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
description |
International audience Climate forcing, sensitivity, and feedback metrics are evaluated in both the United Kingdom's physical climate model HadGEM3‐GC3.1 at low (‐LL) and medium (‐MM) resolution and the United Kingdom's Earth System Model UKESM1. The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) to a doubling of CO 2 is 5.5 K for HadGEM3.1‐GC3.1‐LL and 5.4 K for UKESM1. The transient climate response is 2.5 and 2.8 K, respectively. While the EffCS is larger than that seen in the previous generation of models, none of the model's forcing or feedback processes are found to be atypical of models, though the cloud feedback is at the high end. The relatively large EffCS results from an unusual combination of a typical CO 2 forcing with a relatively small feedback parameter. Compared to the previous U.K. climate model, HadGEM3‐GC2.0, the EffCS has increased from 3.2 to 5.5 K due to an increase in CO 2 forcing, surface albedo feedback, and midlatitude cloud feedback. All changes are well understood and due to physical improvements in the model. At higher atmospheric and ocean resolution (HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐MM), there is a compensation between increased marine stratocumulus cloud feedback and reduced Antarctic sea‐ice feedback. In UKESM1, a CO 2 fertilization effect induces a land surface vegetation change and albedo radiative effect. Historical aerosol forcing in HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐LL is −1.1 W m−2. In HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐LL historical simulations, cloud feedback is found to be less positive than in abrupt‐4xCO 2 , in agreement with atmosphere‐only experiments forced with observed historical sea surface temperature and sea‐ice variations. However, variability in the coupled model's historical sea‐ice trends hampers accurate diagnosis of the model's total historical feedback. |
author2 |
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter University of Reading (UOR) University of Exeter Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU) European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Andrews, Timothy Andrews, Martin B. Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro Jones, Gareth, Kuhlbrodt, Till Manners, James Menary, Matthew, Ridley, Jeff Ringer, Mark, Sellar, Alistair, Senior, Catherine A. Tang, Yongming |
author_facet |
Andrews, Timothy Andrews, Martin B. Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro Jones, Gareth, Kuhlbrodt, Till Manners, James Menary, Matthew, Ridley, Jeff Ringer, Mark, Sellar, Alistair, Senior, Catherine A. Tang, Yongming |
author_sort |
Andrews, Timothy |
title |
Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1 |
title_short |
Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1 |
title_full |
Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1 |
title_fullStr |
Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1 |
title_sort |
forcings, feedbacks, and climate sensitivity in hadgem3-gc3.1 and ukesm1 |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816/file/Andrews_et_al-2019-Journal_of_Advances_in_Modeling_Earth_Systems.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001866 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 1942-2466 Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816 Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, American Geophysical Union, 2019, 11 (12), pp.4377-4394. ⟨10.1029/2019MS001866⟩ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019MS001866 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//641816/EU/Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach/CRESCENDO hal-02430816 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816/file/Andrews_et_al-2019-Journal_of_Advances_in_Modeling_Earth_Systems.pdf doi:10.1029/2019MS001866 WOS: 000502989000001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001866 |
container_title |
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
4377 |
op_container_end_page |
4394 |
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spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-02430816v1 2023-05-15T13:36:11+02:00 Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1 Andrews, Timothy Andrews, Martin B. Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro Jones, Gareth, Kuhlbrodt, Till Manners, James Menary, Matthew, Ridley, Jeff Ringer, Mark, Sellar, Alistair, Senior, Catherine A. Tang, Yongming Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter University of Reading (UOR) University of Exeter Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU) European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015) 2019-12 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816/file/Andrews_et_al-2019-Journal_of_Advances_in_Modeling_Earth_Systems.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001866 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019MS001866 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//641816/EU/Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach/CRESCENDO hal-02430816 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816/file/Andrews_et_al-2019-Journal_of_Advances_in_Modeling_Earth_Systems.pdf doi:10.1029/2019MS001866 WOS: 000502989000001 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1942-2466 Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02430816 Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, American Geophysical Union, 2019, 11 (12), pp.4377-4394. ⟨10.1029/2019MS001866⟩ Climate Sensitivity CMIP6 CFMIP RFMIP Radiative forcing Climate feedback [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2019 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001866 2021-12-19T01:33:37Z International audience Climate forcing, sensitivity, and feedback metrics are evaluated in both the United Kingdom's physical climate model HadGEM3‐GC3.1 at low (‐LL) and medium (‐MM) resolution and the United Kingdom's Earth System Model UKESM1. The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) to a doubling of CO 2 is 5.5 K for HadGEM3.1‐GC3.1‐LL and 5.4 K for UKESM1. The transient climate response is 2.5 and 2.8 K, respectively. While the EffCS is larger than that seen in the previous generation of models, none of the model's forcing or feedback processes are found to be atypical of models, though the cloud feedback is at the high end. The relatively large EffCS results from an unusual combination of a typical CO 2 forcing with a relatively small feedback parameter. Compared to the previous U.K. climate model, HadGEM3‐GC2.0, the EffCS has increased from 3.2 to 5.5 K due to an increase in CO 2 forcing, surface albedo feedback, and midlatitude cloud feedback. All changes are well understood and due to physical improvements in the model. At higher atmospheric and ocean resolution (HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐MM), there is a compensation between increased marine stratocumulus cloud feedback and reduced Antarctic sea‐ice feedback. In UKESM1, a CO 2 fertilization effect induces a land surface vegetation change and albedo radiative effect. Historical aerosol forcing in HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐LL is −1.1 W m−2. In HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐LL historical simulations, cloud feedback is found to be less positive than in abrupt‐4xCO 2 , in agreement with atmosphere‐only experiments forced with observed historical sea surface temperature and sea‐ice variations. However, variability in the coupled model's historical sea‐ice trends hampers accurate diagnosis of the model's total historical feedback. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Antarctic Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 11 12 4377 4394 |