The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins
International audience The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2020
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591/file/Jenouvrier_et_al-2019-Global_Change_Biology%20%281%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14864 |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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English |
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climate change mitigation dispersion Antarctica seabirds emission reduction pledges [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
climate change mitigation dispersion Antarctica seabirds emission reduction pledges [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Holland, Marika Iles, David Labrousse, Sara Landrum, Laura Garnier, Jimmy Caswell, Hal Weimerskirch, Henri LaRue, Michelle Ji, Rubao Barbraud, Christophe The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins |
topic_facet |
climate change mitigation dispersion Antarctica seabirds emission reduction pledges [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad-hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate-dependent-metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities. |
author2 |
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Oceanography Section Boulder National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Laboratoire de Mathématiques (LAMA) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry ) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) University of Minnesota Twin Cities (UMN) University of Minnesota System |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Holland, Marika Iles, David Labrousse, Sara Landrum, Laura Garnier, Jimmy Caswell, Hal Weimerskirch, Henri LaRue, Michelle Ji, Rubao Barbraud, Christophe |
author_facet |
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Holland, Marika Iles, David Labrousse, Sara Landrum, Laura Garnier, Jimmy Caswell, Hal Weimerskirch, Henri LaRue, Michelle Ji, Rubao Barbraud, Christophe |
author_sort |
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie |
title |
The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins |
title_short |
The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins |
title_full |
The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins |
title_fullStr |
The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins |
title_sort |
paris agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591/file/Jenouvrier_et_al-2019-Global_Change_Biology%20%281%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14864 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins |
op_source |
ISSN: 1354-1013 EISSN: 1365-2486 Global Change Biology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591 Global Change Biology, Wiley, 2020, 26 (3), pp.1170-1184. ⟨10.1111/gcb.14864⟩ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14864 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
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26 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1170 |
op_container_end_page |
1184 |
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1766063534582530048 |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-02365591v1 2023-05-15T13:35:15+02:00 The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Holland, Marika Iles, David Labrousse, Sara Landrum, Laura Garnier, Jimmy Caswell, Hal Weimerskirch, Henri LaRue, Michelle Ji, Rubao Barbraud, Christophe Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Oceanography Section Boulder National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Laboratoire de Mathématiques (LAMA) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry ) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) University of Minnesota Twin Cities (UMN) University of Minnesota System 2020 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591/file/Jenouvrier_et_al-2019-Global_Change_Biology%20%281%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14864 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/gcb.14864 hal-02365591 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591/file/Jenouvrier_et_al-2019-Global_Change_Biology%20%281%29.pdf doi:10.1111/gcb.14864 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1354-1013 EISSN: 1365-2486 Global Change Biology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02365591 Global Change Biology, Wiley, 2020, 26 (3), pp.1170-1184. ⟨10.1111/gcb.14864⟩ climate change mitigation dispersion Antarctica seabirds emission reduction pledges [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14864 2021-11-07T00:24:23Z International audience The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad-hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate-dependent-metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Global Change Biology 26 3 1170 1184 |