Integrating reproductive phenology in ecological niche models changed the predicted future ranges of a marine invader
International audience Aim: Phenology of a wide diversity of organisms has a dependency on climate, usually with reproductive periods beginning earlier in the year and lasting longer at lower latitudes. Temperature and day length are known environmental drivers of the reproductive timing of many spe...
Published in: | Diversity and Distributions |
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Online Access: | https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719/file/Chefaoui_et_al-2019-Diversity_and_Distributions.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12910 |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-02140719v1 2023-05-15T18:28:33+02:00 Integrating reproductive phenology in ecological niche models changed the predicted future ranges of a marine invader Chefaoui, Rosa, Serebryakova, Alexandra Engelen, Aschwin Viard, Frédérique Serrão, Ester Centre of Marine Sciences Faro (CCMAR) University of Algarve Portugal Station biologique de Roscoff (SBR) Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2019-04-23 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719/file/Chefaoui_et_al-2019-Diversity_and_Distributions.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12910 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/ddi.12910 hal-02140719 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719/file/Chefaoui_et_al-2019-Diversity_and_Distributions.pdf doi:10.1111/ddi.12910 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1366-9516 EISSN: 1472-4642 Diversity and Distributions https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719 Diversity and Distributions, Wiley, 2019, 25 (5), pp.688-700. ⟨10.1111/ddi.12910⟩ climate change invasive species marine alga phenology Sargassum muticum species distribution models [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment [SDV.BID]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2019 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12910 2021-12-05T02:09:57Z International audience Aim: Phenology of a wide diversity of organisms has a dependency on climate, usually with reproductive periods beginning earlier in the year and lasting longer at lower latitudes. Temperature and day length are known environmental drivers of the reproductive timing of many species. Hence, reproductive phenology is sensitive to warming and is important to be considered for reliable predictions of species distributions. This is particularly relevant for rapidly spreading non‐indigenous species (NIS). In this study, we forecast the future ranges of a NIS, the seaweed Sargassum muticum, including its reproductive phenology.Location: Coastal areas of the Northern Hemisphere (Pacific and Atlantic oceans).Methods: We used ecological niche modelling to predict the distribution of S. muticum under two scenarios forecasting limited (RCP 2.6) and severe (RCP 8.5) future climate changes. We then refined our predictions with a hybrid model using sea surface temperature constraints on reproductive phenology.Results: Under the most severe climate change scenario, we predicted northward expansions which may have significant ecological consequences for subarctic coastal ecosystems. However, in lower latitudes, habitats currently occupied by S. muticum will no longer be suitable, creating opportunities for substantial community changes. The temperature constraints imposed by the reproductive window were shown to restrict the modelled future species expansion strongly. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the total range area was expected to increase by 61.75% by 2100, but only by 1.63% when the reproductive temperature window was considered.Main conclusions: Altogether these results exemplify the need to integrate phenology better to improve the prediction of future distributional shifts at local and regional scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper Subarctic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Pacific Diversity and Distributions 25 5 688 700 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change invasive species marine alga phenology Sargassum muticum species distribution models [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment [SDV.BID]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity |
spellingShingle |
climate change invasive species marine alga phenology Sargassum muticum species distribution models [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment [SDV.BID]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity Chefaoui, Rosa, Serebryakova, Alexandra Engelen, Aschwin Viard, Frédérique Serrão, Ester Integrating reproductive phenology in ecological niche models changed the predicted future ranges of a marine invader |
topic_facet |
climate change invasive species marine alga phenology Sargassum muticum species distribution models [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment [SDV.BID]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity |
description |
International audience Aim: Phenology of a wide diversity of organisms has a dependency on climate, usually with reproductive periods beginning earlier in the year and lasting longer at lower latitudes. Temperature and day length are known environmental drivers of the reproductive timing of many species. Hence, reproductive phenology is sensitive to warming and is important to be considered for reliable predictions of species distributions. This is particularly relevant for rapidly spreading non‐indigenous species (NIS). In this study, we forecast the future ranges of a NIS, the seaweed Sargassum muticum, including its reproductive phenology.Location: Coastal areas of the Northern Hemisphere (Pacific and Atlantic oceans).Methods: We used ecological niche modelling to predict the distribution of S. muticum under two scenarios forecasting limited (RCP 2.6) and severe (RCP 8.5) future climate changes. We then refined our predictions with a hybrid model using sea surface temperature constraints on reproductive phenology.Results: Under the most severe climate change scenario, we predicted northward expansions which may have significant ecological consequences for subarctic coastal ecosystems. However, in lower latitudes, habitats currently occupied by S. muticum will no longer be suitable, creating opportunities for substantial community changes. The temperature constraints imposed by the reproductive window were shown to restrict the modelled future species expansion strongly. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the total range area was expected to increase by 61.75% by 2100, but only by 1.63% when the reproductive temperature window was considered.Main conclusions: Altogether these results exemplify the need to integrate phenology better to improve the prediction of future distributional shifts at local and regional scales. |
author2 |
Centre of Marine Sciences Faro (CCMAR) University of Algarve Portugal Station biologique de Roscoff (SBR) Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chefaoui, Rosa, Serebryakova, Alexandra Engelen, Aschwin Viard, Frédérique Serrão, Ester |
author_facet |
Chefaoui, Rosa, Serebryakova, Alexandra Engelen, Aschwin Viard, Frédérique Serrão, Ester |
author_sort |
Chefaoui, Rosa, |
title |
Integrating reproductive phenology in ecological niche models changed the predicted future ranges of a marine invader |
title_short |
Integrating reproductive phenology in ecological niche models changed the predicted future ranges of a marine invader |
title_full |
Integrating reproductive phenology in ecological niche models changed the predicted future ranges of a marine invader |
title_fullStr |
Integrating reproductive phenology in ecological niche models changed the predicted future ranges of a marine invader |
title_full_unstemmed |
Integrating reproductive phenology in ecological niche models changed the predicted future ranges of a marine invader |
title_sort |
integrating reproductive phenology in ecological niche models changed the predicted future ranges of a marine invader |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719/file/Chefaoui_et_al-2019-Diversity_and_Distributions.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12910 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
Subarctic |
genre_facet |
Subarctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1366-9516 EISSN: 1472-4642 Diversity and Distributions https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719 Diversity and Distributions, Wiley, 2019, 25 (5), pp.688-700. ⟨10.1111/ddi.12910⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/ddi.12910 hal-02140719 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02140719/file/Chefaoui_et_al-2019-Diversity_and_Distributions.pdf doi:10.1111/ddi.12910 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12910 |
container_title |
Diversity and Distributions |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
688 |
op_container_end_page |
700 |
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1766211076015259648 |