A participatory scenario method to explore the future of marine social‐ecological systems

• Published in: Fish and Fisheries
• Main Authors: Planque, Benjamin, Mullon, Christian, Arneberg, Per, Eide, Arne, Fromentin, Jean‐Marc, Heymans, Johanna Jacomina, Hoel, Alf Håkon, Niiranen, Susa, Ottersen, Geir, Sandø, Anne Britt, Sommerkorn, Martin, Thébaud, Olivier, Thorvik, Thorbjørn
• Other Authors: Tromsø department (IMR), Institute of Marine Research Bergen (IMR), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), The Arctic University of Norway (UiT), Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS), Stockholm University, University of Bergen (UiB), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences Bergen (BIO / UiB), Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer (AMURE), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer (IUEM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2019
• Subjects: Multiple perspectives; Participatory fisheries management; Storylines; Uncertainty; Barents Sea; Future studies; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces; environment
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02138079; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02138079/document; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02138079/file/faf.12356.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12356

International audience Anticipating future changes in marine social‐ecological systems (MSES) several decades into the future is essential in the context of accelerating global change. This is challenging in situations where actors do not share common understandings, practices, or visions about the future. We introduce a dedicated scenario method for the development of MSES scenarios in a participatory context. The objective is to allow different actors to jointly develop scenarios which contain their multiple visions of the future. The method starts from four perspectives: “fisheries management,” “ecosystem,” “ocean climate,” and “global context and governance” for which current status and recent trends are summarized. Contrasted scenarios about possible futures are elaborated for each of the four single perspectives before being integrated into multiple‐perspective scenarios. Selected scenarios are then developed into storylines. Focusing on individual perspectives until near the end allows actors with diverse cultures, interests and horizons to confront their own notions of the future. We illustrate the method with the exploration of the futures of the Barents Sea MSES by 2050. We emphasize the following lessons learned: first, many actors are not familiar with scenario building and attention must be paid to explaining the purpose, methodology, and benefits of scenarios exercises. Second, although the Barents Sea MSES is relatively well understood, uncertainties about its future are significant. Third, it is important to focus on unlikely events. Fourth, all perspectives should be treated equally. Fifth, as MSES are continuously changing, we can only be prepared for future changes if we collectively keep preparing.