Predictability of Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variations
International audience and Keywords The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a large, basin-scale circulation located in the Atlantic Ocean that transports climatically important quantities of heat northward. It can be described schematically as a northward flow in the warm upper oc...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-02136510v1 2023-05-15T17:30:22+02:00 Predictability of Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variations Sévellec, Florian Sinha, Bablu Ocean and Earth Science Southampton University of Southampton-National Oceanography Centre (NOC) National Oceanography Centre (NOC) 2018-09 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510/file/sevellec_and_sinha-ORE-CS18.pdf https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.81 en eng HAL CCSD Oxford University Press info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.81 hal-02136510 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510/file/sevellec_and_sinha-ORE-CS18.pdf doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.81 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess Oxford Encyclopedia of Climate Science, Oxford University Press https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510 Oxford Encyclopedia of Climate Science, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, 2018, ⟨10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.81⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart Book sections 2018 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.81 2020-12-24T18:57:05Z International audience and Keywords The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a large, basin-scale circulation located in the Atlantic Ocean that transports climatically important quantities of heat northward. It can be described schematically as a northward flow in the warm upper ocean and a southward return flow at depth in much colder water. The heat capacity of a layer of 2 m of seawater is equivalent to that of the entire atmosphere; therefore, ocean heat content dominates Earth's energy storage. For this reason and because of the AMOC's typically slow decadal variations, the AMOC regulates North Atlantic climate and contributes to the relatively mild climate of Europe. Hence, predicting AMOC variations is crucial for predicting climate variations in regions bordering the North Atlantic. Similar to weather predictions, climate predictions are based on numerical simulations of the climate system. However, providing accurate predictions on such long timescales is far from straightforward. Even in a perfect model approach, where biases between numerical models and reality are ignored, the chaotic nature of AMOC variability (i.e., high sensitivity to initial conditions) is a significant source of uncertainty, limiting its accurate prediction. Book Part North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Sévellec, Florian Sinha, Bablu Predictability of Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variations |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience and Keywords The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a large, basin-scale circulation located in the Atlantic Ocean that transports climatically important quantities of heat northward. It can be described schematically as a northward flow in the warm upper ocean and a southward return flow at depth in much colder water. The heat capacity of a layer of 2 m of seawater is equivalent to that of the entire atmosphere; therefore, ocean heat content dominates Earth's energy storage. For this reason and because of the AMOC's typically slow decadal variations, the AMOC regulates North Atlantic climate and contributes to the relatively mild climate of Europe. Hence, predicting AMOC variations is crucial for predicting climate variations in regions bordering the North Atlantic. Similar to weather predictions, climate predictions are based on numerical simulations of the climate system. However, providing accurate predictions on such long timescales is far from straightforward. Even in a perfect model approach, where biases between numerical models and reality are ignored, the chaotic nature of AMOC variability (i.e., high sensitivity to initial conditions) is a significant source of uncertainty, limiting its accurate prediction. |
author2 |
Ocean and Earth Science Southampton University of Southampton-National Oceanography Centre (NOC) National Oceanography Centre (NOC) |
format |
Book Part |
author |
Sévellec, Florian Sinha, Bablu |
author_facet |
Sévellec, Florian Sinha, Bablu |
author_sort |
Sévellec, Florian |
title |
Predictability of Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variations |
title_short |
Predictability of Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variations |
title_full |
Predictability of Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variations |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variations |
title_sort |
predictability of decadal atlantic meridional overturning circulation variations |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510/file/sevellec_and_sinha-ORE-CS18.pdf https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.81 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Oxford Encyclopedia of Climate Science, Oxford University Press https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510 Oxford Encyclopedia of Climate Science, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, 2018, ⟨10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.81⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.81 hal-02136510 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02136510/file/sevellec_and_sinha-ORE-CS18.pdf doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.81 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.81 |
_version_ |
1766126737259757568 |