Making use of multiple surveys: Estimating breeding probability using a multievent‐robust design capture–recapture model
International audience Increased environmental stochasticity due to climate change will intensify temporal variance in the life-history traits, and especially breeding probabilities, of long-lived iteroparous species. These changes may decrease individual fitness and population viability and is ther...
Published in: | Ecology and Evolution |
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Main Authors: | , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2019
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952/file/Oosthuizen_et_al-2019-Ecology_and_Evolution.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4828 |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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English |
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[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment |
spellingShingle |
[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment Oosthuizen, W. Chris Pradel, Roger Bester, Marthan Nico De Bruyn, P J Making use of multiple surveys: Estimating breeding probability using a multievent‐robust design capture–recapture model |
topic_facet |
[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment |
description |
International audience Increased environmental stochasticity due to climate change will intensify temporal variance in the life-history traits, and especially breeding probabilities, of long-lived iteroparous species. These changes may decrease individual fitness and population viability and is therefore important to monitor. In wild animal populations with imperfect individual detection, breeding probabilities are best estimated using capture-recapture methods. However, in many vertebrate species (e.g., amphibians, turtles, seabirds), nonbreeders are unobservable because they are not tied to a territory or breeding location. Although unobservable states can be used to model temporary emigration of nonbreeders, there are disadvantages to having unobservable states in capture-recapture models. The best solution to deal with unobservable life-history states is therefore to eliminate them altogether. Here, we achieve this objective by fitting novel multievent-robust design models which utilize information obtained from multiple surveys conducted throughout the year. We use this approach to estimate annual breeding probabilities of capital breeding female elephant seals (Mirounga leonina). Conceptually, our approach parallels a multistate version of the Barker/robust design in that it combines robust design capture data collected during discrete breeding seasons with observations made at other times of the year. A substantial advantage of our approach is that the nonbreeder state became "observable" when multiple data sources were analyzed together. This allowed us to test for the existence of state-dependent survival (with some support found for lower survival in breeders compared to nonbreeders), and to estimate annual breeding transitions to and from the nonbreeder state with greater precision (where current breeders tended to have higher future breeding probabilities than nonbreeders). We used program E-SURGE (2.1.2) to fit the multievent-robust design models, with uncertainty in breeding state assignment ... |
author2 |
Department of Zoology and Entomology Pretoria University of Pretoria South Africa Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud ) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Oosthuizen, W. Chris Pradel, Roger Bester, Marthan Nico De Bruyn, P J |
author_facet |
Oosthuizen, W. Chris Pradel, Roger Bester, Marthan Nico De Bruyn, P J |
author_sort |
Oosthuizen, W. Chris |
title |
Making use of multiple surveys: Estimating breeding probability using a multievent‐robust design capture–recapture model |
title_short |
Making use of multiple surveys: Estimating breeding probability using a multievent‐robust design capture–recapture model |
title_full |
Making use of multiple surveys: Estimating breeding probability using a multievent‐robust design capture–recapture model |
title_fullStr |
Making use of multiple surveys: Estimating breeding probability using a multievent‐robust design capture–recapture model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Making use of multiple surveys: Estimating breeding probability using a multievent‐robust design capture–recapture model |
title_sort |
making use of multiple surveys: estimating breeding probability using a multievent‐robust design capture–recapture model |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952/file/Oosthuizen_et_al-2019-Ecology_and_Evolution.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4828 |
genre |
Elephant Seals Mirounga leonina |
genre_facet |
Elephant Seals Mirounga leonina |
op_source |
ISSN: 2045-7758 Ecology and Evolution https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952 Ecology and Evolution, Wiley Open Access, 2019, 9 (2), pp.836-848. ⟨10.1002/ece3.4828⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/ece3.4828 hal-02104952 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952/file/Oosthuizen_et_al-2019-Ecology_and_Evolution.pdf doi:10.1002/ece3.4828 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4828 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
836 |
op_container_end_page |
848 |
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1766401654980083712 |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-02104952v1 2023-05-15T16:05:46+02:00 Making use of multiple surveys: Estimating breeding probability using a multievent‐robust design capture–recapture model Oosthuizen, W. Chris Pradel, Roger Bester, Marthan Nico De Bruyn, P J Department of Zoology and Entomology Pretoria University of Pretoria South Africa Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud ) 2019-02-05 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952/file/Oosthuizen_et_al-2019-Ecology_and_Evolution.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4828 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley Open Access info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/ece3.4828 hal-02104952 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952/file/Oosthuizen_et_al-2019-Ecology_and_Evolution.pdf doi:10.1002/ece3.4828 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2045-7758 Ecology and Evolution https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02104952 Ecology and Evolution, Wiley Open Access, 2019, 9 (2), pp.836-848. ⟨10.1002/ece3.4828⟩ [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2019 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4828 2021-11-21T01:32:04Z International audience Increased environmental stochasticity due to climate change will intensify temporal variance in the life-history traits, and especially breeding probabilities, of long-lived iteroparous species. These changes may decrease individual fitness and population viability and is therefore important to monitor. In wild animal populations with imperfect individual detection, breeding probabilities are best estimated using capture-recapture methods. However, in many vertebrate species (e.g., amphibians, turtles, seabirds), nonbreeders are unobservable because they are not tied to a territory or breeding location. Although unobservable states can be used to model temporary emigration of nonbreeders, there are disadvantages to having unobservable states in capture-recapture models. The best solution to deal with unobservable life-history states is therefore to eliminate them altogether. Here, we achieve this objective by fitting novel multievent-robust design models which utilize information obtained from multiple surveys conducted throughout the year. We use this approach to estimate annual breeding probabilities of capital breeding female elephant seals (Mirounga leonina). Conceptually, our approach parallels a multistate version of the Barker/robust design in that it combines robust design capture data collected during discrete breeding seasons with observations made at other times of the year. A substantial advantage of our approach is that the nonbreeder state became "observable" when multiple data sources were analyzed together. This allowed us to test for the existence of state-dependent survival (with some support found for lower survival in breeders compared to nonbreeders), and to estimate annual breeding transitions to and from the nonbreeder state with greater precision (where current breeders tended to have higher future breeding probabilities than nonbreeders). We used program E-SURGE (2.1.2) to fit the multievent-robust design models, with uncertainty in breeding state assignment ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Elephant Seals Mirounga leonina Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Ecology and Evolution 9 2 836 848 |