Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability
International audience Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01983751v1 2023-05-15T17:33:55+02:00 Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability Lenton, Timothy Dakos, Vasilis Bathiany, Sebastian Scheffer, Marten College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM) École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UR226 2017-12 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/document https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/file/41598_2017_Article_6382.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x en eng HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/28725011 hal-01983751 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/document https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/file/41598_2017_Article_6382.pdf doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x PUBMED: 28725011 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC5517648 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2045-2322 EISSN: 2045-2322 Scientific Reports https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751 Scientific Reports, Nature Publishing Group, 2017, 7 (1), ⟨10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2017 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x 2021-11-21T00:19:52Z International audience Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are subjects of ongoing debate. Increases in the amplitude and persistence of temperature fluctuations have been detected in some regions, e.g. the North Pacific, but there is no agreed global signal. Here we systematically scan monthly surface temperature indices and spatial datasets to look for trends in variance and autocorrelation (persistence). We show that monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation increased over 1957-2002 across large parts of the North Pacific, North Atlantic, North America and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, (multi)decadal internal climate variability appears to influence trends in monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation. Historically-forced climate models do not reproduce the observed trends in temperature variance and autocorrelation, consistent with the models poorly capturing (multi)decadal internal climate variability. Based on a review of established spatial correlations and corresponding mechanistic 'teleconnections' we hypothesise that observed slowing down of sea surface temperature variability contributed to observed increases in land temperature variability and autocorrelation, which in turn contributed to persistent droughts in North America and the Mediterranean. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Pacific Scientific Reports 7 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology Lenton, Timothy Dakos, Vasilis Bathiany, Sebastian Scheffer, Marten Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
description |
International audience Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are subjects of ongoing debate. Increases in the amplitude and persistence of temperature fluctuations have been detected in some regions, e.g. the North Pacific, but there is no agreed global signal. Here we systematically scan monthly surface temperature indices and spatial datasets to look for trends in variance and autocorrelation (persistence). We show that monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation increased over 1957-2002 across large parts of the North Pacific, North Atlantic, North America and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, (multi)decadal internal climate variability appears to influence trends in monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation. Historically-forced climate models do not reproduce the observed trends in temperature variance and autocorrelation, consistent with the models poorly capturing (multi)decadal internal climate variability. Based on a review of established spatial correlations and corresponding mechanistic 'teleconnections' we hypothesise that observed slowing down of sea surface temperature variability contributed to observed increases in land temperature variability and autocorrelation, which in turn contributed to persistent droughts in North America and the Mediterranean. |
author2 |
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM) École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UR226 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lenton, Timothy Dakos, Vasilis Bathiany, Sebastian Scheffer, Marten |
author_facet |
Lenton, Timothy Dakos, Vasilis Bathiany, Sebastian Scheffer, Marten |
author_sort |
Lenton, Timothy |
title |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_short |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_full |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_fullStr |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_sort |
observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/document https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/file/41598_2017_Article_6382.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 2045-2322 EISSN: 2045-2322 Scientific Reports https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751 Scientific Reports, Nature Publishing Group, 2017, 7 (1), ⟨10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/28725011 hal-01983751 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/document https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01983751/file/41598_2017_Article_6382.pdf doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x PUBMED: 28725011 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC5517648 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766132584482340864 |