Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case
International audience A key decision in field management is whether or not to acquire information to either improve project economics or reduce uncertainties. A widely spread technique to quantify the gain of information acquisition is Value of Information (VoI). However, estimating the possible ou...
Published in: | Oil & Gas Science and Technology – Revue d’IFP Energies nouvelles |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01929061v1 2023-05-15T17:25:06+02:00 Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case Botechia, Vinicius Eduardo dos Santos, Daniel Rodrigues Barreto, Carlos Eduardo Andrade Gaspar, Ana Teresa Ferreira da Silva Santos, Susana Margarida da Graça Schiozer, Denis José University of Campinas 2018 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061/file/ogst180145.pdf https://doi.org/10.2516/ogst/2018054 en eng HAL CCSD Institut Français du Pétrole (IFP) info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.2516/ogst/2018054 hal-01929061 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061/file/ogst180145.pdf doi:10.2516/ogst/2018054 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1294-4475 EISSN: 1953-8189 Oil & Gas Science and Technology - Revue d'IFP Energies nouvelles https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061 Oil & Gas Science and Technology - Revue d'IFP Energies nouvelles, Institut Français du Pétrole (IFP), 2018, 73, pp.54. ⟨10.2516/ogst/2018054⟩ [PHYS]Physics [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.2516/ogst/2018054 2022-04-03T00:53:40Z International audience A key decision in field management is whether or not to acquire information to either improve project economics or reduce uncertainties. A widely spread technique to quantify the gain of information acquisition is Value of Information (VoI). However, estimating the possible outcomes of future information without the data is a complex task. While traditional VoI estimates are based on a single average value, the Chance of Success (CoS) methodology works as a diagnostic tool, estimating a range of possible outcomes that vary because of reservoir uncertainties. The objective of this work is to estimate the CoS of a 4D seismic before having the data, applied to a complex real case (Norne field). The objective is to assist the decision of whether, or not, to acquire further data. The methodology comprises the following steps: uncertainty quantification, selection of Representative Models (RMs), estimation of the acquisition period, production strategy optimization and, finally, quantification of the CoS. The estimates use numerical reservoir simulation, economic analysis, and uncertainty evaluation. We performed analyses considering perfect and imperfect information. We aim to verify the increment in economic return when the 4D data identifies the closest-to-reality reservoir model. While the traditional expected VoI calculation provides only an average value, this methodology has the advantage of considering the increase in the economic return due to reservoir uncertainties, characterized by different RMs. Our results showed that decreased reliability of information affected the decision of which production strategy to select. In our case, information reliability less than 70% is insufficient to change the perception of the uncertain reservoir and consequently decisions. Furthermore, when the reliability reached around 50%, the information lost value, as the economic return became similar to that of the case without information acquisition. Article in Journal/Newspaper Norne field Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Oil & Gas Science and Technology – Revue d’IFP Energies nouvelles 73 54 |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[PHYS]Physics [physics] |
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[PHYS]Physics [physics] Botechia, Vinicius Eduardo dos Santos, Daniel Rodrigues Barreto, Carlos Eduardo Andrade Gaspar, Ana Teresa Ferreira da Silva Santos, Susana Margarida da Graça Schiozer, Denis José Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case |
topic_facet |
[PHYS]Physics [physics] |
description |
International audience A key decision in field management is whether or not to acquire information to either improve project economics or reduce uncertainties. A widely spread technique to quantify the gain of information acquisition is Value of Information (VoI). However, estimating the possible outcomes of future information without the data is a complex task. While traditional VoI estimates are based on a single average value, the Chance of Success (CoS) methodology works as a diagnostic tool, estimating a range of possible outcomes that vary because of reservoir uncertainties. The objective of this work is to estimate the CoS of a 4D seismic before having the data, applied to a complex real case (Norne field). The objective is to assist the decision of whether, or not, to acquire further data. The methodology comprises the following steps: uncertainty quantification, selection of Representative Models (RMs), estimation of the acquisition period, production strategy optimization and, finally, quantification of the CoS. The estimates use numerical reservoir simulation, economic analysis, and uncertainty evaluation. We performed analyses considering perfect and imperfect information. We aim to verify the increment in economic return when the 4D data identifies the closest-to-reality reservoir model. While the traditional expected VoI calculation provides only an average value, this methodology has the advantage of considering the increase in the economic return due to reservoir uncertainties, characterized by different RMs. Our results showed that decreased reliability of information affected the decision of which production strategy to select. In our case, information reliability less than 70% is insufficient to change the perception of the uncertain reservoir and consequently decisions. Furthermore, when the reliability reached around 50%, the information lost value, as the economic return became similar to that of the case without information acquisition. |
author2 |
University of Campinas |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Botechia, Vinicius Eduardo dos Santos, Daniel Rodrigues Barreto, Carlos Eduardo Andrade Gaspar, Ana Teresa Ferreira da Silva Santos, Susana Margarida da Graça Schiozer, Denis José |
author_facet |
Botechia, Vinicius Eduardo dos Santos, Daniel Rodrigues Barreto, Carlos Eduardo Andrade Gaspar, Ana Teresa Ferreira da Silva Santos, Susana Margarida da Graça Schiozer, Denis José |
author_sort |
Botechia, Vinicius Eduardo |
title |
Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case |
title_short |
Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case |
title_full |
Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case |
title_fullStr |
Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case |
title_sort |
estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the norne benchmark case |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061/file/ogst180145.pdf https://doi.org/10.2516/ogst/2018054 |
genre |
Norne field |
genre_facet |
Norne field |
op_source |
ISSN: 1294-4475 EISSN: 1953-8189 Oil & Gas Science and Technology - Revue d'IFP Energies nouvelles https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061 Oil & Gas Science and Technology - Revue d'IFP Energies nouvelles, Institut Français du Pétrole (IFP), 2018, 73, pp.54. ⟨10.2516/ogst/2018054⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.2516/ogst/2018054 hal-01929061 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01929061/file/ogst180145.pdf doi:10.2516/ogst/2018054 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.2516/ogst/2018054 |
container_title |
Oil & Gas Science and Technology – Revue d’IFP Energies nouvelles |
container_volume |
73 |
container_start_page |
54 |
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1766116396635258880 |