Possible deep connection between volcanic systems evidenced by sequential assimilation of geodetic data

• Published in: Scientific Reports
• Main Authors: Bato, Mary-Grace, Pinel, Virginie, Yan, Yajing, Jouanne, François, Vandemeulebrouck, Jean
• Other Authors: Institut des Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre), Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UR219-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ), Laboratoire d'Informatique, Systèmes, Traitement de l'Information et de la Connaissance (LISTIC), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2018
• Subjects: [SDE]Environmental Sciences; Holuhraun; Iceland
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01866136; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01866136/document; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01866136/file/s41598-018-29811-x.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29811-x

International audience The existence of possible deep connections between nearby volcanoes has so far only been formulated on the basis of correlation in their eruptive activities or geochemical arguments. The use of geodetic data to monitor the deep dynamics of magmatic systems and the possible interference between them has remained limited due to the lack of techniques to follow transient processes. Here, for the first time, we use sequential data assimilation technique (Ensemble Kalman Filter) on ground displacement data to evaluate a possible interplay between the activities of Grímsvötn and Bárðarbunga volcanoes in Iceland. Using a two-reservoir dynamical model for the Grímsvötn plumbing system and assuming a fixed geometry and constant magma properties, we retrieve the temporal evolution of the basal magma inflow beneath Grímsvötn that drops by up to 85% during the 10 months preceding the initiation of the Bárðarbunga rifting event. We interpret the loss of at least 0.016 km3 in the magma supply of Grímsvötn as a consequence of magma accumulation beneath Bárðarbunga and subsequent feeding of the Holuhraun eruption 41 km away. We demonstrate that, in addition to its interest for predicting volcanic eruptions, sequential assimilation of geodetic data has a unique potential to give insights into volcanic system roots.