A Climatology of Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Systems: their Number, Tracks, Impacts, Sizes, Empirical Maximum Potential Intensity and Intensity Changes
International audience A 17-yr ''climatology'' of tropical-system activity, track, size, and 24-h intensity change in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) is developed and analyzed in comparison with other intensively studied basins such as the North Atlantic Ocean. A first formulat...
Published in: | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology |
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01717988v1 2023-05-15T17:31:58+02:00 A Climatology of Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Systems: their Number, Tracks, Impacts, Sizes, Empirical Maximum Potential Intensity and Intensity Changes Leroux, Marie-Dominique Meister, Julien Mékies, Dominique Dorla, Annie-Laure Caroff, Philippe Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France 2018 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988/file/LEROUX_jamc-d-17-0094.1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0094.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0094.1 hal-01717988 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988/file/LEROUX_jamc-d-17-0094.1.pdf doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0094.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1558-8424 EISSN: 1558-8432 Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988 Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, American Meteorological Society, In press, 57 (4), pp.1021 - 1041. ⟨10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0094.1⟩ [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftccsdartic https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0094.1 2021-11-07T03:01:31Z International audience A 17-yr ''climatology'' of tropical-system activity, track, size, and 24-h intensity change in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) is developed and analyzed in comparison with other intensively studied basins such as the North Atlantic Ocean. A first formulation of the empirical maximum potential intensity of SWIO tropical systems is also proposed, along with the climatology of sea surface temperatures from September to June. Systems with a 34-kt (1 kt 5 0.514 m s 21) wind radius that does not exceed 46 km are considered to be very small or midget systems, on the basis of the 5th percentile of storm size distribution. Using the 95th percentile of overwater intensity changes, rapid intensification (RI) is statistically defined by a minimum increase of 15.4 m s 21 day 21 in the maximum 10-min mean surface wind speed (VMAX). This value is similar to the 30-kt threshold commonly used in the North Atlantic basin for 1-min sustained wind speeds. Rapid decay (RD) can be statistically defined by a minimum weakening of 13.9 m s 21 day 21 , although the spread in the 5th percentile of intensity changes among the different intensity classes indicates that it is not as appropriate to use a unique RD threshold for all systems. It is shown that 43% of all tropical systems and all very intense tropical cyclones (VMAX $ 59.6 m s 21) underwent RI at least once during their lifetimes. It is highlighted that systems have a greater propensity to intensify rapidly for an initial intensity between 65 and 75 kt. Statistics indicate that operational intensity forecast errors are significantly greater at short range for RI cases while track errors are reduced. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) Indian Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 57 4 1021 1041 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] |
spellingShingle |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] Leroux, Marie-Dominique Meister, Julien Mékies, Dominique Dorla, Annie-Laure Caroff, Philippe A Climatology of Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Systems: their Number, Tracks, Impacts, Sizes, Empirical Maximum Potential Intensity and Intensity Changes |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] |
description |
International audience A 17-yr ''climatology'' of tropical-system activity, track, size, and 24-h intensity change in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) is developed and analyzed in comparison with other intensively studied basins such as the North Atlantic Ocean. A first formulation of the empirical maximum potential intensity of SWIO tropical systems is also proposed, along with the climatology of sea surface temperatures from September to June. Systems with a 34-kt (1 kt 5 0.514 m s 21) wind radius that does not exceed 46 km are considered to be very small or midget systems, on the basis of the 5th percentile of storm size distribution. Using the 95th percentile of overwater intensity changes, rapid intensification (RI) is statistically defined by a minimum increase of 15.4 m s 21 day 21 in the maximum 10-min mean surface wind speed (VMAX). This value is similar to the 30-kt threshold commonly used in the North Atlantic basin for 1-min sustained wind speeds. Rapid decay (RD) can be statistically defined by a minimum weakening of 13.9 m s 21 day 21 , although the spread in the 5th percentile of intensity changes among the different intensity classes indicates that it is not as appropriate to use a unique RD threshold for all systems. It is shown that 43% of all tropical systems and all very intense tropical cyclones (VMAX $ 59.6 m s 21) underwent RI at least once during their lifetimes. It is highlighted that systems have a greater propensity to intensify rapidly for an initial intensity between 65 and 75 kt. Statistics indicate that operational intensity forecast errors are significantly greater at short range for RI cases while track errors are reduced. |
author2 |
Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Leroux, Marie-Dominique Meister, Julien Mékies, Dominique Dorla, Annie-Laure Caroff, Philippe |
author_facet |
Leroux, Marie-Dominique Meister, Julien Mékies, Dominique Dorla, Annie-Laure Caroff, Philippe |
author_sort |
Leroux, Marie-Dominique |
title |
A Climatology of Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Systems: their Number, Tracks, Impacts, Sizes, Empirical Maximum Potential Intensity and Intensity Changes |
title_short |
A Climatology of Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Systems: their Number, Tracks, Impacts, Sizes, Empirical Maximum Potential Intensity and Intensity Changes |
title_full |
A Climatology of Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Systems: their Number, Tracks, Impacts, Sizes, Empirical Maximum Potential Intensity and Intensity Changes |
title_fullStr |
A Climatology of Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Systems: their Number, Tracks, Impacts, Sizes, Empirical Maximum Potential Intensity and Intensity Changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Climatology of Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Systems: their Number, Tracks, Impacts, Sizes, Empirical Maximum Potential Intensity and Intensity Changes |
title_sort |
climatology of southwest indian ocean tropical systems: their number, tracks, impacts, sizes, empirical maximum potential intensity and intensity changes |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988/file/LEROUX_jamc-d-17-0094.1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0094.1 |
geographic |
Indian |
geographic_facet |
Indian |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1558-8424 EISSN: 1558-8432 Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988 Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, American Meteorological Society, In press, 57 (4), pp.1021 - 1041. ⟨10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0094.1⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0094.1 hal-01717988 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01717988/file/LEROUX_jamc-d-17-0094.1.pdf doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0094.1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0094.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology |
container_volume |
57 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1021 |
op_container_end_page |
1041 |
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1766129869163331584 |