Addressing ambiguity in probabilistic assessments of future marine flooding using possibility distributions
International audience Today, decision making in the area of coastal adaptation is facing a major challenge due to the deep uncertainties of sea level projections. These deep uncertainties (aka ambiguity or epistemic uncertainties), reflect the intrinsically imprecise nature of global sea level rise...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Conference Object |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855/file/EGU2018-4262.pdf |
id |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01715855v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01715855v1 2023-05-15T13:41:02+02:00 Addressing ambiguity in probabilistic assessments of future marine flooding using possibility distributions Rohmer, Jeremy Le Cozannet, Gonéri Manceau, Jean-Charles Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) Vienne, Austria 2018-04-08 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855/file/EGU2018-4262.pdf en eng HAL CCSD hal-01715855 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855/file/EGU2018-4262.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess EGU - European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855 EGU - European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Apr 2018, Vienne, Austria https://www.egu2018.eu/ [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] [SHS.STAT]Humanities and Social Sciences/Methods and statistics info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject Conference papers 2018 ftccsdartic 2021-11-07T03:12:43Z International audience Today, decision making in the area of coastal adaptation is facing a major challenge due to the deep uncertainties of sea level projections. These deep uncertainties (aka ambiguity or epistemic uncertainties), reflect the intrinsically imprecise nature of global sea level rise (GSLR) due to the lack of knowledge regarding the melting of ice, particularly in Antarctica. Possibility distributions are one of the mathematical tools enabling to overcome the ambiguity in the selection a unique probability laws by bounding all the plausible ones. By adopting this new mathematical tool, we aim at evaluating how GSLR uncertainties accumulate with other sources of uncertainties, namely: the choice in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario, the ranking of high-end scenarios, the regional bias, the contributions of extremes and wave effects. The case study corresponds to a local low-lying coastal urban area exposed to storm surge and waves in the north-western Mediterranean coast. We focus on the probability of future flooding by 2100 defined as the probability of exceeding a critical threshold corresponding to the height of coastal defences. The joint sensitivity analysis of the probabilistic, possibilistic and scenario-like sources of uncertainty enables to highlight the key role of deep uncertainties of GSLR, of the statistical uncertainty related to extremes and to a lesser extent of the choice in the RCP scenario. These results heavily depend on the decision maker’s attitude to risk (neutral, averse), which suggests the importance of entering into a loop of interactions with users, in order to collect their requirements and feedbacks, and involves research at the interface between behavioural and decision analytics, climate and coastal science as well as applied statistics. Conference Object Antarc* Antarctica Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
op_collection_id |
ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] [SHS.STAT]Humanities and Social Sciences/Methods and statistics |
spellingShingle |
[SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] [SHS.STAT]Humanities and Social Sciences/Methods and statistics Rohmer, Jeremy Le Cozannet, Gonéri Manceau, Jean-Charles Addressing ambiguity in probabilistic assessments of future marine flooding using possibility distributions |
topic_facet |
[SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] [SHS.STAT]Humanities and Social Sciences/Methods and statistics |
description |
International audience Today, decision making in the area of coastal adaptation is facing a major challenge due to the deep uncertainties of sea level projections. These deep uncertainties (aka ambiguity or epistemic uncertainties), reflect the intrinsically imprecise nature of global sea level rise (GSLR) due to the lack of knowledge regarding the melting of ice, particularly in Antarctica. Possibility distributions are one of the mathematical tools enabling to overcome the ambiguity in the selection a unique probability laws by bounding all the plausible ones. By adopting this new mathematical tool, we aim at evaluating how GSLR uncertainties accumulate with other sources of uncertainties, namely: the choice in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario, the ranking of high-end scenarios, the regional bias, the contributions of extremes and wave effects. The case study corresponds to a local low-lying coastal urban area exposed to storm surge and waves in the north-western Mediterranean coast. We focus on the probability of future flooding by 2100 defined as the probability of exceeding a critical threshold corresponding to the height of coastal defences. The joint sensitivity analysis of the probabilistic, possibilistic and scenario-like sources of uncertainty enables to highlight the key role of deep uncertainties of GSLR, of the statistical uncertainty related to extremes and to a lesser extent of the choice in the RCP scenario. These results heavily depend on the decision maker’s attitude to risk (neutral, averse), which suggests the importance of entering into a loop of interactions with users, in order to collect their requirements and feedbacks, and involves research at the interface between behavioural and decision analytics, climate and coastal science as well as applied statistics. |
author2 |
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Rohmer, Jeremy Le Cozannet, Gonéri Manceau, Jean-Charles |
author_facet |
Rohmer, Jeremy Le Cozannet, Gonéri Manceau, Jean-Charles |
author_sort |
Rohmer, Jeremy |
title |
Addressing ambiguity in probabilistic assessments of future marine flooding using possibility distributions |
title_short |
Addressing ambiguity in probabilistic assessments of future marine flooding using possibility distributions |
title_full |
Addressing ambiguity in probabilistic assessments of future marine flooding using possibility distributions |
title_fullStr |
Addressing ambiguity in probabilistic assessments of future marine flooding using possibility distributions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Addressing ambiguity in probabilistic assessments of future marine flooding using possibility distributions |
title_sort |
addressing ambiguity in probabilistic assessments of future marine flooding using possibility distributions |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855/file/EGU2018-4262.pdf |
op_coverage |
Vienne, Austria |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica |
op_source |
EGU - European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855 EGU - European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Apr 2018, Vienne, Austria https://www.egu2018.eu/ |
op_relation |
hal-01715855 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01715855/file/EGU2018-4262.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1766145128897970176 |