Recent trends in the recurrence of North-Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns
A few types of extreme climate events in the North Atlantic region, such as heatwaves, cold spells or high cumulated precipitation, are connected to the persistence of atmospheric circulation patterns. Understanding or attributing those extreme events requires assessing long-term trends of the atmos...
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ftccsdartic:oai:HAL:hal-01616483v1 2023-05-15T17:28:58+02:00 Recent trends in the recurrence of North-Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Yiou, Pascal Cattiaux, Julien Ribes, Aurélien Vautard, Robert Vrac, Mathieu Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2017-10-13 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483/file/SLP_trends_20170803_complexity.pdf en eng HAL CCSD hal-01616483 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483/file/SLP_trends_20170803_complexity.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483 2017 [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint Preprints, Working Papers, . 2017 ftccsdartic 2021-12-19T02:30:43Z A few types of extreme climate events in the North Atlantic region, such as heatwaves, cold spells or high cumulated precipitation, are connected to the persistence of atmospheric circulation patterns. Understanding or attributing those extreme events requires assessing long-term trends of the atmospheric circulation. This paper presents a set of diagnostics of the intra and interannual recurrence of atmospheric patterns. Those diagnostics are devised to detect trends in the stability of the circulation and the return period of atmospheric patterns. We detect significant emerging trends in the winter circulation, pointing towards a potential increased predictability. No such signal seems to emerge in the summer. We find that the winter trends in the dominating atmospheric patterns and their recurrences do not depend of the patterns themselves. Report North Atlantic Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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Open Polar |
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Archive ouverte HAL (Hyper Article en Ligne, CCSD - Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) |
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ftccsdartic |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Yiou, Pascal Cattiaux, Julien Ribes, Aurélien Vautard, Robert Vrac, Mathieu Recent trends in the recurrence of North-Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
A few types of extreme climate events in the North Atlantic region, such as heatwaves, cold spells or high cumulated precipitation, are connected to the persistence of atmospheric circulation patterns. Understanding or attributing those extreme events requires assessing long-term trends of the atmospheric circulation. This paper presents a set of diagnostics of the intra and interannual recurrence of atmospheric patterns. Those diagnostics are devised to detect trends in the stability of the circulation and the return period of atmospheric patterns. We detect significant emerging trends in the winter circulation, pointing towards a potential increased predictability. No such signal seems to emerge in the summer. We find that the winter trends in the dominating atmospheric patterns and their recurrences do not depend of the patterns themselves. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Report |
author |
Yiou, Pascal Cattiaux, Julien Ribes, Aurélien Vautard, Robert Vrac, Mathieu |
author_facet |
Yiou, Pascal Cattiaux, Julien Ribes, Aurélien Vautard, Robert Vrac, Mathieu |
author_sort |
Yiou, Pascal |
title |
Recent trends in the recurrence of North-Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
title_short |
Recent trends in the recurrence of North-Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
title_full |
Recent trends in the recurrence of North-Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
title_fullStr |
Recent trends in the recurrence of North-Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
title_full_unstemmed |
Recent trends in the recurrence of North-Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
title_sort |
recent trends in the recurrence of north-atlantic atmospheric circulation patterns |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483/file/SLP_trends_20170803_complexity.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483 2017 |
op_relation |
hal-01616483 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01616483/file/SLP_trends_20170803_complexity.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1766122277360893952 |