North Atlantic polar lows and weather regimes: do current links persist in a warmer climate?

• Published in: Atmospheric Science Letters
• Main Authors: Mallet, Paul-Etienne, Claud, Chantal, Vicomte, Marie
• Other Authors: Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique - UMR 8518 (LOA), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2017
• Subjects: climatic projections; North Atlantic; polar lows; weather regimes; [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph]; [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology
• Online Access: https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01585070; https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01585070/document; https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01585070/file/Mallet_et_al-2017-Atmospheric_Science_Letters.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.763

International audience Polar low development over the North Atlantic under a warmer climate is assessed using simulations of an atmospheric–oceanic coupled general circulation model, specifically with regards to the evolution of large-scale atmospheric variability described by weather regimes, and their links with lower-layer static stability. While a relationship has been identified for the present climate, under a warmer climate, polar low favorable conditions are expected to occur less often, and the large-scale circulation variability appears to have reduced influence on stability, and thus, on polar low occurrence.