Potential stabilizing points to mitigate tipping point interactions in Earth's climate

• Published in: International Journal of Climatology
• Main Authors: Gaucherel, Cedric, Moron, Vincent
• Other Authors: Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (UMR AMAP), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud ), Institut Français de Pondichéry (IFP), Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères (MEAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Columbia University New York
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2016
• Subjects: graph; climate change; expert elicitation; formal grammar; Boolean model; integrative model; [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology; environment/Bioclimatology; [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; Antarctic; West Antarctic Ice Sheet; Antarc*; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01555740; https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4712

International audience ‘Tipping points’ (TPs) are thresholds of potentially disproportionate changes in the Earth’s climate systemassociated with future global warming and are considered today as a ‘hot’ topic in environmental sciences. In this study, TPinteractions are analysed from an integrated and conceptual point of view using two qualitative Boolean models built on graphgrammars. They allow an accurate study of the node TP interactions previously identified by expert elicitation and take intoaccount a range of various large-scale climate processes potentially able to trigger, alone or jointly, instability in the globalclimate. Our findings show that, contrary to commonly held beliefs, far from causing runaway changes in the Earth’s climate,such as self-acceleration due to additive positive feedbacks, successive perturbations might actually lead to its stabilization. Amore comprehensive model defined TPs as interactions between nine (non-exhaustive) large-scale subsystems of the Earth’sclimate, highlighting the enhanced sensitivity to the triggering of the disintegration of the west Antarctic ice sheet. We areclaiming that today, it is extremely difficult to guess the fate of the global climate system as TP sensitivity depends stronglyon the definition of the model. Finally, we demonstrate the stronger effect of decreasing rules (i.e. mitigating connected TPs)over other rule types, thus suggesting the critical role of possible ‘stabilizing points’ that are yet to be identified and studied.